日本政治生态的变化及其对中日关系的影响  

Changes in Japan's Political Ecology and Their Impact on Sino-Japanese Relations

作　　者：王广涛 WANG Guang-tao

机构地区：[1]复旦大学日本研究中心,上海200433

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2025年第1期114-126,128,共14页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：浙江省哲学社会科学重点研究基地浙江工商大学东亚研究院委托课题(24JDDYZX02);国家社会科学基金中国历史研究院重大历史问题研究专项(22VLS014)。

摘　　要：自2012年安倍晋三带领自民党重新执政后,日本的国内政治生态开始发生显著变化,集中体现为右倾化、保守化和民粹化三个方面的特征。其中,政治右倾化最为突出,且政治右倾化塑造社会右倾化,导致民众在涉及修宪以及历史认知等问题上逐渐认同自民党的主张。总体保守化催生日本民众的生活保守主义,导致日本民众客观上安于现状并被动支持自民党政权。而日益凸显的民粹化倾向则进一步裹挟政府政策的制定,导致政府单方面迎合民意做出非理性决策。这三种政治生态之间既有联系又有差异,但是其生成都得益于政治家塑造、国力水平下降、经济增长乏力等内生性因素,以及地区和国际局势变化等外部性因素的综合影响。日本政治生态的变化虽然形态各异,但在涉华相关议题上均较为消极,对此应该看到其长期性以及对中日关系的负面影响,与此同时还要寻求日本国内抵抗力量,抑制这一势头的发展。Since Shinzo Abe led the Liberal Democratic Party(LDP) back to power in 2012,Japan's domestic political ecology has undergone significant changes. The changes are concentrated in three aspects,including right deviation,conservatization and populism. The shift towards right deviation is the most prominent,and it has shaped society to move in the same direction,leading the public to increasingly align with the LDP's positions on issues such as constitutional revision and historical perception. Conservatization has given rise to conservatism in the lives of the Japanese people,making them more content with the status quo and passively supportive of the LDP regime. Increasing populism has further coerced the government's policy making,leading to unilateral decisions that irrationally cater to public opinion. The above changes are related and different from each other,but they are all generated by a combination of endogenous factors such as the shaping of politicians,declining national power,and sluggish economic growth,as well as exogenous factors such as changes in the regional and international situation. Although the changes in Japan's political environment exhibit different forms,all of them take a negative stance on China-related issues. In this regard,it is essential to recognize the long-term and negative impacts on Sino-Japanese relations and simultaneously identify and support resistance forces within Japan to mitigate this trend.

关 键 词：右倾化 保守化 民粹化 日本政治 中日关系 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]