灰色模型GM(1,1)在四川省医院感染发病率预测中的应用  

Application of grey GM(1,1)in prediction of incidence rate of hospital-acquired infection in Sichuan Province

作　　者：林伟 赵祝英 赵芳珉 LIN Wei;ZHAO Zhu-ying;ZHAO Fang-min(Western Theater Air Force Hospital,Chengdu,Sichuan 61ooll,China)

机构地区：[1]西部战区空军医院疾病预防控制科,四川成都610011

出　　处：《中华医院感染学杂志》2025年第1期138-142,共5页Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology

基　　金：军队能力建设计划项目(145AHQ080020005X)。

摘　　要：目的探讨灰色模型GM(1,1)在医院感染发病率预测中的应用价值,为四川省医院感染防控工作提供科学依据。方法构建四川省二级及以上医院、二级医院和三级医院的医院感染发病率预测模型,检验各模型的精度和拟合效果,预测2023年-2025年四川省各级医院医院感染发病率。结果构建的四川省二级及以上医院、二级医院和三级医院的医院感染发病率预测模型的精度(后验差比值C值<0.35,小误差概率P值>0.95)和拟合效果(相对误差<0.1,级比偏差<0.2)均较好,根据模型预测到2025年各级医院感染发病率可分别降低至0.51%、0.35%和0.59%。结论灰色模型GM(1,1)对四川省各级医院医院感染发病率的预测效果较好,有助于相关部门及时了解医院感染发病率的发展趋势,为调整防控措施提供科学依据。OBJECTIVE To explore the value of grey GM(1,1)in prediction of incidence of hospital-acquired infection so as to provide scientific bases for prevention and control of hospital-acquired infection in Sichuan Province.METHODS The prediction models for incidence of hospital-acquired infections in secondary or above hospitals,secondary hospitals and tertiary hospitals of Sichuan Province were established,the accuracy and fitting effect of the prediction models were tested,and the prevalence rates of hospital-acquired infections in the various grades of hospitals of Sichuan Province from 2023 to 2025 were predicated.RESULTS Both the accuracy(posterior difference ratio C value less than 0.35,small probability of error P value more than 0.95)and the fitting effect(relative error less than 0.1,grade ratio deviation less than 0.2)of the established prediction models were favorable for the incidence rates of hospital-acquired infection in the secondary or above hospitals,secondary hospitals and tertiary hospitals of Sichuan Province.The incidence rates of hospital-acquired infection of the various grades of hospitals were predicted to reduce to 0.51%,0.35%and 0.59%,respectively based on the prediction models.CONCLUSION The grey model GM(1,1)can achieve remarkable effect on prediction of incidence of hospital-acquired infection in the various grades of hospitals of Sichuan Province and help the related departments to grasp the growing trend of incidence of hospital-acquired infection so as to provide scientific bases for adjusting the prevention measures.

关 键 词：灰色模型 医院感染 发病率 预测 

分 类 号：R197[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]