基于ERA5的中国海域1993-2050年海平面变化研究  

Sea level change in the Chinese Sea area from 1993 to 2050 based on ERA5

作　　者：李平平 孙永康 赵升年 李龙盛 石洪源 洪新[3] LI Pingping;SUN Yongkang;ZHAO Shengnian;LI Longsheng;SHI Hongyuan;HONG Xin(School of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering,Ludong University,Yantai 264025,China;Institute of Port and Coastal Disaster Prevention and Mitigation,Ludong University,Yantai 264025,China;Yantai Marine Environment Monitoring Center Station,State Oceanic Administration,Yantai 264000,China)

机构地区：[1]鲁东大学水利土木学院,山东烟台264025 [2]鲁东大学港口海岸防灾减灾研究院,山东烟台264025 [3]国家海洋局烟台海洋环境监测中心站,山东烟台264000

出　　处：《海洋科学》2024年第11期12-20,共9页Marine Sciences

基　　金：NSFC-山东联合基金(U1906231)。

摘　　要：海平面变化的研究对生态环境及人类活动具有重要意义。基于ERA5(第五代欧洲中期天气预报中心气候再分析数据)提供的1993—2050年中国海域海平面高度数据,本文利用Mann-Kendall突变检验和趋势分析方法,研究了中国近海海域1993—2050年58 a的海平面变化特征。结果表明,1993—2023年海平面整体呈上升趋势,年均增速为2.33 mm;2023—2050年在SSP5-8.5高排放情景下,海平面上升趋势明显加快,增速为4.98~6.92 mm/a。区域分析发现,中国海域海平面高度呈现自西北向东南递增的分布特征,未来在SSP5-8.5高排放情景下,东海的上升幅度最大,南海次之,黄渤海最小。季节性变化显示,中国大部分海域在夏秋两季海平面较高,冬春两季较低。本文的研究揭示了中国海域海平面变化的时间趋势、区域特征及季节性分布规律,为应对未来气候变化背景下的海平面上升问题提供参考。Understanding sea level changes is crucial for the environment and human activities.This study investigates sea level variations in China’s offshore waters from 1993 to 2050,using ERA5 sea level height data.The analysis incorporates the Mann–Kendall mutation test and trend test to assess historical and future trends.The results reveal that from 1993 to 2023,sea levels generally rose at an average of 2.33 mm/a,with only a few exceptions.For the period from 2023 to 2050,under the SSP5-8.5 high-emission scenario,the rate of sea level rise is projected to accelerate significantly,ranging between 4.98 and 6.92 mm per year.Regionally,the data shows that sea level heights increase from northwest to southeast in China’s waters.Future projections under the SSP5-8.5 high-emission scenario indicate the highest sea level rise will occur in the East China Sea,followed by the South China Sea,with the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea experiencing the least increase.The analysis of seasonal changes shows that sea levels in the Chinese area are higher during summer and autumn,while they drop in winter and spring.

关 键 词：海平面变化 中国海域 SSP5-8.5 MK检验 ERA5 

分 类 号：P731.1[天文地球—海洋科学]