2016—2023年江苏省苏州市钉螺扩散时空分布特征  

Spatio⁃temporal distribution characteristics of Oncomelania hupensis snails spread in Suzhou City of Jiangsu Province from 2016 to 2023

作　　者：施倩雯 沈玲娥 周靖[1] 吴敬之[1] SHI Qianwen;SHEN Ling'e;ZHOU Jing;WU Jingzhi(Suzhou Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Suzhou,Jiangsu 215000,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省苏州市疾病预防控制中心,江苏苏州215000

出　　处：《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》2024年第6期577-583,共7页Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control

基　　金：江苏省预防医学及血地寄防科研课题(x202304);江苏省苏州市“科教兴卫”青年科技项目(KJXW2021057);江苏省苏州市卫生青年骨干人才“全国导师制”项目(Qngg2021031)。

摘　　要：目的了解2016—2023年江苏省苏州市钉螺扩散分布及时空聚集性特征,为该市精准控制钉螺提供科学依据。方法收集2016—2023年苏州市钉螺监测数据,获取各年钉螺扩散面积、新发和复现有螺面积。利用ArcGIS 10.7软件开展苏州市钉螺扩散情况全局和局部空间自相关分析,探索钉螺扩散环境的空间分布特征及聚集类型和位置;利用SaTScan 10.0.2软件开展苏州市钉螺扩散情况时空扫描分析,探索钉螺扩散聚集性和聚集范围。结果2016—2023年,苏州市钉螺累计扩散面积677171 m^(2),其中新发有螺面积376230 m^(2)、复现有螺面积300941 m^(2)。全局自相关分析发现,2016—2023年苏州市钉螺扩散整体呈现聚集性(Moran's I=0.066,P=0.007),其中2019年(Moran's I=0.086,P=0.001)和2021年(Moran's I=0.045,P=0.003)钉螺扩散面积亦存在空间聚集性。局部空间自相关分析显示,2016—2023年苏州市钉螺扩散整体存在聚集区,“高-高”聚集区包括光福镇和东渚街道,各年“高-高”聚集区主要分布于苏州市西南部。时空扫描分析显示,2016—2023年苏州市钉螺扩散面积和复现有螺面积存在两个聚集区,其中范围较大的聚集区包含光福镇、东渚街道、通安镇、望亭镇[相对危险度(relative risk,RR)=22.34,对数似然比(log likelihood ratio,LLR)=163295.32,P<0.001],范围较小的聚集区包括胥口镇、木渎镇和香山街道(RR=2.73,LLR=921.92,P<0.001)。结论2016—2023年江苏省苏州市存在钉螺扩散聚集区,应提高查灭螺工作质量,因地制宜地加强扩散高风险区域钉螺控制工作。Objective To investigate the Oncomelania hupensis snails spread and its spatio⁃temporal clustering characteristics in Suzhou City,Jiangsu Province from 2016 to 2023,so as to provide insights into precision control of O.hupensis snails in the City.Methods O.hupensis snail surveillance data in Suzhou City from 2016 to 2023 were collected,and the areas of O.hupensis snail spread and areas of emerging and re⁃emerging snail habitats were retrieved.The spatial distribution characteristics and clustering types and locations of environments with O.hupensis snail spread were investigated using global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses with the software ArcGIS 10.7,and the clustering and cluster areas of O.hupensis snail spread were identified in Suzhou City using spatio⁃temporal scans with the software SaTScan 10.0.2.Results O.hupensis snail spread covered an area of 677171 m^(2)in Suzhou City from 2016 to 2023,including 376230 m^(2)emerging snail habitats and 300941 m^(2)re⁃emerging snail habitats.Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed overall clustering of O.hupensis snail spread in Suzhou City from 2016 to 2023(Moran's I=0.066,P=0.007),and there were spatial clustering of areas with O.hupensis snail spread in 2019(Moran's I=0.086,P=0.001)and 2021(Moran's I=0.045,P=0.003).Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed clusters of O.hupensis snail spread in Suzhou City from 2016 to 2023,with high⁃high clusters in Guangfu Township and Dongzhu Street,and the high⁃high clusters of O.hupensis snail spread were mainly distributed in southwestern Suzhou City.Spatio⁃temporal scans identified two clusters of areas with O.hupensis snail spread and areas of re⁃emerging snail habitats in Suzhou City from 2016 to 2023,with large clustering areas found in Guangfu Township,Dongzhu Street,Tong'an Township and Wangting Township[relative risk(RR)=22.34,log likelihood ratio(LLR)=163295.32,P<0.001]and small clustering areas in Xukou Township,Mudu Township and Xiangshan Street(RR=2.73,LLR=921.92,P<0.001).Concl

关 键 词：血吸虫病 湖北钉螺 空间分布 时空聚集性 空间自相关 时空扫描 苏州市 

分 类 号：R383.24[医药卫生—医学寄生虫学]