2010—2022年新疆维吾尔自治区肺结核时空分布特征分析  

Spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2010 to 2022

作　　者：李菲菲 周培瑶 卢耀勤[2] 郑彦玲[3] 张利萍[3] Li Feifei;Zhou Peiyao;Lu Yaoqin;Zheng Yanling;Zhang Liping(School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830017;Urumqi Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Urumqi 830026;School of Medical Engineering and Technology,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830017)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,乌鲁木齐830017 [2]新疆乌鲁木齐市疾病预防控制中心,乌鲁木齐830026 [3]新疆医科大学医学工程技术学院,乌鲁木齐830017

出　　处：《安徽医科大学学报》2024年第12期2176-2182,共7页Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:72163033、72064036、72174175)。

摘　　要：目的分析新疆肺结核发病的时空分布特征,为肺结核防控工作提供参考依据。方法收集新疆各县、市(州)、区2010—2022年肺结核报告发病数及人口数据,基于时空扫描统计量、标准差椭圆分析和重心迁移模型,评估肺结核发病聚集性及迁移趋势;基于克里金插值技术,以年为尺度对2022年发病率进行插值分析,以2018年报告发病率作为时间对照,捕捉时空分布热点区域;使用ArcGIS软件完成发病率连续空间变化趋势的可视化。结果2010—2022年新疆肺结核年报告发病率逐年变化,2018年前波动上升,并于2018年达到峰值,随后逐年下降;发病率空间分布呈现先聚集后扩散的变化趋势,发病率重心向东北方向迁移,但疫情重心一直在阿克苏地区;时空扫描统计量分析结果显示,疫情三个级别聚集区域共涉及41个州、县、市,一级、二级聚集区肺结核发病风险高于其他区域(P<0.01);克里金插值预测图提示,南部四地州仍是肺结核疫情高风险区域(发病率>300/10万);北部区域整体发病率较低,乌鲁木齐市最低,向四周辐射。结论新疆地区肺结核发病率2018年前呈上升趋势,随后逐年降低;发病率重心向东北方向迁移;2010—2022年新疆肺结核疫情呈明显时空聚集性,西南部尤为显著,西南部的四地州为肺结核疫情高风险区域。新疆肺结核防控工作应重点关注肺结核疫情高发区域,加大防控力度和政策支持。Objective To analyze the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Xinjiang,and to provide reference for the prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis.Methods The reported incidence numbers of tuberculosis and population data from various counties,cities(prefectures),and districts in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2022 were collected.Based on spatial-temporal scan statistics,standard deviational ellipse analysis,and centroid migration models,the clustering and migration trends of tuberculosis incidence were evaluated.Utilizing Kriging interpolation techniques,an interpolation analysis of the 2022 incidence rate was conducted on an annual scale,with the reported incidence rate in 2018 serving as a temporal control,to identify hotspots of the spatio-temporal distribution.ArcGIS software was employed to visualize the continuous spatial trends of incidence rate changes.Results The annual reported incidence rate of tuberculosis in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2022 varied year by year,with fluctuations and increases prior to 2018,peaking in 2018,and then declining annually thereafter.The spatial distribution of the incidence rate exhibited a trend of initial clustering followed by diffusion,with the centroid of incidence shifting towards the northeast,yet the epicenter of the epidemic remained in Aksu Prefecture.The results of spatiotemporal scan statistics analysis revealed that the three-level aggregated areas of the epidemic encompassed a total of 41 prefectures,counties,and cities,with the tuberculosis incidence risk in the primary and secondary aggregated areas being significantly higher than that in other regions(P<0.01).The Kriging interpolation prediction map suggested that the four prefectures in southern Xinjiang continued to be high-risk regions for tuberculosis(incidence rate>300/100000).The overall incidence rate in the northern region was relatively low,with the lowest rate observed in Urumqi,radiating outwards.Conclusion The incidence rate of tuberculosis in Xinjiang show

关 键 词：肺结核 克里金插值 重心迁移模型 时空分布 时空扫描统计量 标准差椭圆分析 

分 类 号：R18[医药卫生—流行病学]