1975—2020年青海省四类慢性病早死概率及预测分析  

Analysis on the probability and prediction of premature death of four types of chronic diseases in Qinghai province,1975-2020

作　　者：张明慧 徐莉立[2] 范宁 许志华[2] 史雪莹 沙琼玥 郭淑玲[2] 周素霞[2] ZHANG Minghui;XU Lili;FAN Ning;XU Zhihua;SHI Xueying;SHA Qiongyue;GUO Shuling;ZHOU Suxia(Department of Public Health,Qinghai University Medical College,Xining 810007,China)

机构地区：[1]青海大学医学院公共卫生系,西宁810007 [2]青海省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《首都公共卫生》2024年第6期330-336,共7页Capital Journal of Public Health

基　　金：青海省“昆仑英才·高端创新创业人才”培养计划(2023年);青海省卫生健康系统重点课题(编号:2023-wjzd-03)。

摘　　要：目的分析青海省1975—2020年四类慢性病的死亡情况及早死概率,探讨实现《“健康中国2030”规划纲要》(以下简称“健康中国2030”)目标需要在既往基础上提高的比例。方法收集1975、2006、2015和2020年4次死因调查数据,计算四类慢性病的粗死亡率、标化死亡率、早死概率、平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)等指标,预测2030年青海省四类慢性病的早死概率。结果1975—2020年青海省四类慢性病粗死亡率由210.16/10万增长至465.16/10万,标化死亡率由491.67/10万增长至636.42/10万,均呈现上升趋势(P均<0.05),除1975年外,男性四大类慢性病的粗死亡率、标化死亡率均高于同期女性(P均<0.001)。青海省四类慢性病的早死概率从1975年的23.75%下降至2020年的19.74%。女性心脑血管疾病的早死概率呈现下降趋势(AAPC=-1.29%,P=0.039),牧区糖尿病的早死概率呈现上升趋势(AAPC=5.98%,P=0.014),其余差异均无统计学意义(P均>0.05)。青海省2030年预期早死概率高于目标值,以实现“健康中国2030”为目标,需将四类慢性病早死概率的下降速度在既往的基础上提高0.37%。结论1975—2020年青海省四类慢性病的早死概率逐年下降,糖尿病是慢性病防控的重点,同时应关注男性、牧区人群健康,加快早死概率的下降速度,努力实现“健康中国2030”目标。Objective To analyze the death rates of four categories of chronic diseases and premature death probability in Qinghai province from 1975 to 2020,and to explore the required proportion for the goal of Qutline of the Healthy China 2030.Methods Data were collected from four cause-of-death investigations in 1975,2006,2015,and 2020.Crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,premature death probability,average annual percentage change(AAPC),and other indicators of the four categories of chronic diseases were calculated,and the premature death probability of the four categories of chronic diseases in Qinghai province in 2030 were predicted.Results From 1975 to 2020,the crude mortality rate of four categories of chronic disease in Qinghai province increased from 210.16 per 100000 to 465.16 per 100000,the standardized mortality rate increased from 491.67 per 100000 to 636.42 per 100000,both of which showed an increasing trend(all P<0.05).The crude mortality rate as well as the standardized mortality rate of four categories of chronic disease in males were higher than those in females in the same period(all P<0.001),except in 1975.The premature death probability of four categories of chronic diseases in Qinghai province decreased from 23.75%in 1975 to 19.74%in 2020,the premature death probability of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in females showed decreasing trend(AAPC=-1.29%,P=0.039),and the premature death probability of diabetes mellitus in pastoral areas showed an increasing trend(AAPC=5.98%,P=0.014).The expected premature death probability in Qinghai province in 2030 was higher than the target value.In order to achieve the goal of Qutline of the Healthy China 2030,we need to increase the declining rate of the probability of premature death of four categories of chronic diseases by 0.37%.Conclusions From 1975 to 2020,the probability of premature death of four categories of chronic diseases in Qinghai province were decreased gradually,and diabetes was the key issue in chronic disease prevention and c

关 键 词：四类慢性病 粗死亡率 标化死亡率 早死概率 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]