新型城镇化与工商资本下乡——基于新型城镇化建设的准自然实验  

New Urbanization and Industrial and Commercial Capital Going to the Countryside:A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on New Urbanization Construction

作　　者：马双 胡雯镟 Ma Shuang;Hu Wenxuan(School of Economics and Statistics,Guangzhou University)

机构地区：[1]广州大学经济与统计学院

出　　处：《经济科学》2025年第1期92-118,共27页Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目课题“增强脱贫群众内生发展动力的理论机制、制度设计及实现路径研究”(项目编号:23AJY011)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：考察在城乡要素自由流动的环境下工商资本是否下乡,对中国实现乡村振兴、促进城乡一体化发展具有重要的指导意义。本文利用7396万个企业工商注册信息、2013—2019年中国家庭金融调查数据,将市场主导的新型城镇化建设试点作为一项“准自然实验”,使用双重差分模型评估其对劳动力、土地的流动以及对工商资本下乡的影响及机制。研究发现:第一,新型城镇化试点实施后,下乡的工商资本反而显著减少。分企业所有制和地区市场化水平看,政策对私营企业设立的抑制作用更显著,在低市场化水平地区的负向影响更明显。第二,新型城镇化显著推动农村高素质劳动力外流和土地熟人之间的转出,这是企业下乡动力进一步减弱的主要原因。第三,新型城镇化建设拉大了城乡收入差距。第四,新型城镇化和乡村振兴的战略结合对推动工商资本下乡有显著促进作用。Examining whether industrial and commercial capital flows to the countryside under the free flow of urban and rural factors has important guiding significance for China to achieve rural revitalization and promote urban-rural integrated development.Based on the industrial and commercial registration information of 73.96 million enterprises and the data of the 2013-2019 China Household Finance Survey(CHFS),this paper takes the market-led pilot of new urbanization as a“quasi-natural experiment”,and uses the difference-in-differences(DID)model to evaluate its impact and mechanism on the flow of labor and land,as well as on the flow of industrial and commercial capital to the countryside.The results show that:(1)After the implementation of the new urbanization pilot,the amount of industrial and commercial capital going to the countryside has decreased significantly.Considering enterprise ownership and regional marketization levels,the policy's inhibitory effect on the establishment of private enterprises is more significant,and the negative impact is more obvious in areas with low marketization levels.(2)The new urbanization significantly facilitates the outflow of highly qualified workforce in rural areas and the outflow of land acquaintances,which is the main reason for the weakening motivation of enterprises to go to the countryside.(3)The new urbanization construction has widened the income gap between urban and rural areas.(4)The combination of new urbanization and rural revitalization has a significant role in facilitating industrial and commercial capital to the countryside.

关 键 词：新型城镇化 乡村振兴 工商资本下乡 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]