热带气旋尺度预报性能评估及订正技术  

Tropical Cyclone Size Prediction and Development of An Error Correction Method

作　　者：郭瑞琛 徐晶[2] 王玉清[3] Guo Ruihen;Xu Jing;Wang Yuqing(Chinese Academy of Meleorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;Qingdao Joint Insititude of Marine Meteorology,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Qingdao 266034;Department of Aimospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center,School of Earth and Ocean Science and Technology,University of Hawaii at Manoa,Honolulu,Hl 96822,USA)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]中国气象科学研究院青岛海洋气象研究院,青岛266034 [3]美国夏威夷大学马诺阿分校地球与海洋科学与技术学院大气科学系和国际太平洋研究中心,美国檀香山96822

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2025年第1期1-13,共13页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3004200);国家自然科学基金项目(41875057)。

摘　　要：分析中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心的区域台风数值预报系统(CMA-TYM)2020—2023年西北太平洋热带气旋强度尺度预报,探讨CMA-TYM初始涡旋尺度误差对热带气旋后期尺度和强度预报性能的影响。结果表明:CMA-TYM初始涡旋的中心位置与强度较准确,但内核尺度误差较大,其中47%样本的最大风速半径误差较观测偏大1倍以上,26 m·s^(-1)风圈半径(R26)和33 m·s^(-1)风圈半径(R33)被高估,17 m·s^(-1)风圈半径(R17)误差较小。初始涡旋尺度误差越大,所需调整时间越长,通常6~18 h调整完毕。R17和后期预报R17的高滞后相关(大于0.6)的持续时间达48 h,表明初始尺度对后期变化影响显著。CMA-TYM初始涡旋最大风速半径(RMW)尺度过大是增强率偏弱的原因之一,初始尺度误差偏大的涡旋后期R17预报误差也偏大。利用CMA-TYM涡旋初始误差以及预报强度、尺度信息作为预测因子,利用XGBoost方法构建了R17订正模型,结果表明:订正前后的R17尺度24 h预报均方根误差从59.8 km降低至31.8 km,降低了46.8%,约79%的热带气旋预报在经过尺度调整后尺度误差得到改善,表明订正模型具有较好的应用价值。Tropical cyclone(TC)size forecasting is currently an important and challenging aspect of operational forecast.This study analyzes the regional typhoon numerical prediction system(CMA-TYM)of CMA Earth System Modeling and IPrediction Center for TCs in the Northwest Pacific Ocean during 2020-2023,focusing on the impact of initial vortex size errors on the performance of later size and intensity predictions of TCs.The analysis indicates that,despite the accurate initial center position and intensity,CMA-TYM model's initial vortices display substantial errors in both inner-core and outer-core sizes.In 47%of samples,errors in the radius of maximum wind(RMW)could be more than twice as large as observations,while R33 and R26 are also overestimated.In contrast,errors for the radius of gale-force wind(R17)and asymmetry are comparatively smaller.Initial size errors significantly influence subsequent size predictions:Larger initial vortex size errors require longer spin-up times for adjustment and are often associated with larger forecast errors in later stages.After initial adjustments,R17 exhibit a strong lagged correlation(greater than 0.6)with subsequent forecast sizes for up to 48 hours.It indicates a significant influence of initial size on subsequent size changes.It's found that larger RMW size errors adversely affect subsequent intensity forecasts,especially during TC intensification stage.Specifically,a larger initial RMW results in a weaker rate of intensification.Additionally,large initial errors in RMW and R17 typically result in subsequent size forecasts.However,CMA-TYM model can effectively simulate and predict the relationship between size and intensity,indicating that the model can accurately describe TC changes,but the initial size error significantly impacts its predictions.Based on this relationship,a machine learning model,XGBoost,is used to develop an R17 size correction scheme that incorporate initial and forecast intensity,inner-core and outer-core sizes,and initial errors as predictors to estimate and

关 键 词：热带气旋尺度:强度 尺度变化率 强度变化率 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]