特朗普再次执政与美国政治的基本走向  

Trump's Second Term and the Trend of American Politics

作　　者：张文宗[1,2] 刘典知 Zhang Wenzong;Liu Dianzhi

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院 [2]中国现代国际关系研究院美国所 [3]国际关系学院

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2025年第1期5-25,147,共22页

基　　金：2022年国家社科基金重点项目“美国政治生态变化和两党对华政策比较研究”(项目编号:22AGJ011)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在美国通胀和非法移民等问题严重、民众不满情绪高涨的背景下,共和党总统候选人、前总统特朗普击败民主党总统候选人哈里斯,赢得2024年美国总统选举,并带动共和党掌控国会两院。再次执政的特朗普在保守派主导的联邦最高法院助力下,将通过整顿“深层政府”打击政治对手,依靠减税和关税等政策刺激经济,并在移民、教育等社会领域推动右翼民粹议程,试图为自己打造“政治遗产”,以及为共和党获得长期政治优势奠定基础。美国府会分权、联邦制、社会多元等特点决定了其施政必然会受到各种掣肘并可能引发反弹。围绕新的选举周期,民主党在反思败选及“身份政治”困境的同时,将制定和实施新的政治策略。美国政治的钟摆效应、“摇摆州”的存在和美国经济繁荣和衰退周期,使得美国政治未来前景并不确定。Against the backdrop of rising inflation,illegal immigration,and public discontent in the United States,Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump defeated Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris to win the 2024 US presidential election and led the Republican Party to control the Congress.With the help of the more conservative Supreme Court,Trump will crack down on political opponents by challenging the"deep state,stimulate the economy through policies such as tax cuts and tariffs,and promote the right-wing populist agenda in social fields such as immigration and education,trying to create a political legacy"for himself and lay the foundation for the GOP to gain long-term political advantages.The separation of powers between the administration and the Congress,the federal system,and social diversity determined that Trump's power will inevitably be checked by various constraints and trigger backlash.In regard to the new election cycle,the Democratic Party will formulate and implement new political strategies while reflecting on its defeat and the dilemma of"identity politics."The pendulum effect of American politics,the reality of"swing states,"'and the boom and recession cycle of the US economy determine that the prospect of a long cycle dominated by conservatives in American politics is uncertain.

关 键 词：特朗普 2024年美国大选 身份政治 保守化 政治周期 

分 类 号：D77[政治法律—政治学]