稳增长、扩内需、促转型——2025年中国经济展望  

Expand domestic demand, stabilize growth, and promote transformation—— China ’s economic outlook for 2025

作　　者：王一鸣 Wang Yiming

机构地区：[1]中国国际经济交流中心

出　　处：《全球化》2025年第1期10-14,132,共6页Globalization

摘　　要：当前,中国经济运行仍面临一些困难和挑战,最突出的还是国内需求不足。从更长时间跨度看,自2012年进入经济发展新常态后,经济增长的主要约束逐步由供给不足转向需求不足。三年新冠疫情使需求侧受到更大冲击,对经济增长的约束进一步强化。2025年,外部环境变化带来的不利影响可能加深,国内经济运行仍面临挑战。要坚持稳中求进工作总基调,统筹稳增长、扩内需、促转型,以超常规逆周期调节稳定经济增长,以大力度政策提振消费扩大国内需求,以科技创新引领新质生产力发展,以进一步深化改革推动经济转型,以高水平开放应对外部环境不确定性。At present, China ’s economic operation is still facing some difficulties and challenges, the most prominent of which is the lack of domestic demand. From a longer perspective, since 2012, when the new normal of economic development began, the main constraints on economic growth have gradually shifted from insufficient supply to insufficient demand. The three-year COVID-19 has caused a greater impact on the demand side, and the constraints on economic growth have been further strengthened. In 2025, the adverse impact of changes in the external environment may deepen, and the domestic economy will still face challenges. It is necessary to adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, coordinate stable growth, expand domestic demand, strengthen innovation, and promote transformation, stabilize economic growth with unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments, boost consumption and expand domestic demand with strong policies, lead the development of new productive forces with scientific and technological innovation, promote economic transformation with further deepening reform, and respond to uncertainties in the external environment with high-level opening-up.

关 键 词：中国经济 国内需求 经济转型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]