重视并强化中国经济的内生性支撑  

Pay attention to and strengthen the endogenous support of China ’s economy

作　　者：黄志凌 Huang Zhiling

机构地区：[1]不详

出　　处：《全球化》2025年第1期19-27,133,共10页Globalization

摘　　要：如何判断中国经济未来趋势,既影响市场预期,也事关中国经济的政策取向。2008年之后,中国经济运行轨迹一改前期多年的高速增长趋势,引起越来越多的市场担忧。尤其是2018年中美贸易摩擦全面升级与2020年初以来不期而至的新冠疫情的冲击,叠加2023年疫情结束之后经济恢复低于市场预期及2024年美国大选结果,再次使得市场对于中国经济前景充满不确定性忧虑。怎样理解中国经济运行规律,把握中国经济自身的特殊性,就成为政策研究和战略制定者的首要任务。本文提出,分析中国经济趋势不能忽视基础性支撑与经济环境约束,增强中国经济的市场引力既是战略也是策略,当务之急是修复投资引擎以增强经济发展的内生动能。How to judge the future trend of China’s economy not only affects market expectations,but also has a bearing on the policy orientation of China’s economy.Since 2008,China’s economic trajectory has changed from the upward trend of many years in thepast,causing more and more market concerns.In particular,the impact of the comprehensive escalation of Sino-US trade frictions in 2018 and the unexpected impact of the COVID-19 since the beginning of 2020,coupled with the economic recovery after the end of the COVID-19 in 2023 is lower than market expectations and the results of the 2024 US election,once again make the market full of uncertainty and worries about China’s economic prospects.How to understand the laws governing the operation of China’s economy and grasp the particularities of China’s economy itself has become the primary task of policy researchers and strategists.This paper proposes that the analysis of China’s economic trends should not ignore the basic support and economic environment constraints,and that enhancing the market gravity of China’s economy is both a strategy and a tactic,and the top priority is to repair the investment engine to enhance the internal vitality of economic development.

关 键 词：经济趋势 基础支撑 市场引力 内生动能 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]