全球变化背景下黄河流域水旱灾害演变及应对策略  

Evolution of floods and droughts in the Yellow River Basin under global change and relevant coping strategies

作　　者：汤秋鸿[1,2] 徐锡蒙 周羽暄 谢亦周 杨千僖 贺莉 彭守璋[4] 胡亚伟 靳晓辉[5] 樊玉苗[5] GAFFNEY Paul Patrick Joseph 王志慧 邓浩鑫 任艺佳[1,2] TANG Qiuhong;XU Ximeng;ZHOU Yuxuan;XIE Yizhou;YANG Qianxi;HE Li;PENG Shouzhang;HU Yawei;JIN Xiaohui;FAN Yumiao;GAFFNEY Paul Partrick Joseph;WANG Zhihui;DENG Haoxin;REN Yijia(Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi,China;Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Yellow River Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450003,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]北京师范大学,北京100875 [4]西北农林科技大学,陕西杨凌712100 [5]黄河水利委员会黄河水利科学研究院,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《水利发展研究》2025年第2期13-20,共8页Water Resources Development Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2243226)。

摘　　要：文章分析了黄河流域水旱灾害的历史演变、现状特征及未来趋势。在全球气候变化背景下,黄河流域水旱灾害呈现出极端事件频发、旱涝并存、旱涝急转等新情势,大规模人类活动加剧了洪旱灾害风险,经济社会发展和城市化进程导致水旱灾害损失倍增。针对当前防灾减灾体系存在的突出问题,如防洪抗旱工程体系不完善、应对新形势准备不足、山洪灾害防御能力薄弱、流域抗旱能力整体偏弱等,提出了四个适应性对策:加强防洪抗旱工程体系建设,统筹流域内外和上下游水资源调配,提升水旱灾害智慧化防御水平,推进气候韧性社会建设。This article analyzes the historical evolution,current characteristics and future trends of flood and drought disasters in the Yellow River Basin.Under the background of global climate change,flood and drought disasters in the Yellow River Basin have shown new patterns including frequent extreme events,coexistence of droughts and floods,and rapid changes in droughts and floods.Large-scale human activities have intensified the risk of floods and droughts,and economic and social development and urbanization have caused disaster losses to increase exponentially.In view of the outstanding issues existing in the current disaster prevention and reduction system,such as imperfect flood control and drought relief engineering system,insufficient preparation to deal with new situations,weak mountain torrent disasters prevention capabilities,and overall imperfect river basin drought resistance capabilities,this article proposes four adaptive measures,i.e.,strengthening flood control and drought relief engineering system construction,coordinating the allocation of water resources inside and outside the basin,upstream and downstream,improving the level of intelligent flood and drought disaster prevention,and promoting the construction of a climate-resilient society.

关 键 词：气候变化 人类活动 极端事件 防御能力 韧性社会 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P954[天文地球—自然地理学]