贵州省降雨特性及发展趋势预测研究  

Research on rainfall characteristics in Guizhou Province and development prediction

作　　者：李长江[1] 吴海宽 方小宇[1] 史涵丹 LI Changjiang;WU Haikuan;FANG Xiaoyu;SHI Handan(Guizhou Provincial Water Conservancy Research Institute,Guiyang 550002,Guizhou,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省水利科学研究院,贵州贵阳550002

出　　处：《水利发展研究》2025年第2期95-102,共8页Water Resources Development Research

基　　金：贵州省科技厅科技支撑项目黔科合支撑项目([2022]一般167);贵州省水利科技项目(KT202315)。

摘　　要：为全面了解和掌握贵州省降雨特性及未来发展趋势,文章基于贵州省65处气象站点降雨资料,采用Sen's趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验、R/S分析法,对1961—2023年降雨特性及未来发展趋势进行了分析研究。结果显示,全省一、三季度降雨呈现增加趋势,二、四季度及年度降雨均呈现减少趋势。贵州省有27处站点年降雨变化呈现增加趋势,但均未通过显著性检验;有38处站点年降雨呈现减少趋势,其中六枝、普安、盘州、绥阳站点通过α=0.05的显著性检验,降雨量减少趋势显著。根据预测结果,贵州省有33处站点未来可能呈现强反持续性减少趋势,23处站点未来可能呈现强反持续性增加趋势,有3处未来可能呈现弱反持续性增加趋势,有2处基本不变,有4处未来可能为弱反持续性减少趋势。In order to comprehensively understand the characteristics and future development trends of rainfall in Guizhou Province,this article analyzes and studies the rainfall characteristics and future development trends from 1961 to 2023 based on rainfall data from 65 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province,using Sen s trend analysis,Mann Kendall test,and R/S analysis method.The results indicate that the rainfall in the first and third quarters of the province has shown an increasing trend,while the rainfall in the second,fourth quarter and annually has shown a decreasing trend.27 stations in Guizhou show an increasing trend in annual rainfall,but none of them have passed the significance test.38 stations indicate a decreasing trend in annual rainfall,among which the stations of Liuzhi,Pu an,Panzhou,and Suiyang passed the significance test with a value of 0.05,representing a significant decrease in rainfall trend.According to the prediction,there are 33 stations in Guizhou that may present a strong trend of decreasing sustainability in the future,23 stations that may show a strong trend of increasing sustainability in the future,3 stations that may demonstrate a weak trend of increasing sustainability in the future,2 stations that remain basically unchanged,and 4 stations that may show a weak trend of decreasing sustainability in the future.

关 键 词：贵州省 降雨特性 预测分析 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]