人口变化、消费结构与低碳转型  

Population Change, Consumption Structure, and Carbon Emission Reduction

作　　者：雷晓燕[1,2] 张春峰 李昕 赵波[1,2] LEI Xiaoyan;ZHANG Chunfeng;LI Xin;ZHAO Bo(National School of Development,Peking University;China Center for Economic Research,Peking University;School of Statistics,Beijing Normal University)

机构地区：[1]北京大学国家发展研究院 [2]北京大学中国经济研究中心 [3]北京师范大学统计学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2025年第1期5-28,共24页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72061137004,71873006);泰康溢彩基金项目;北京大学必和必拓“碳与气候”博士研究生未名学者奖学金项目(WM202302)的资助。

摘　　要：广泛形成绿色生产生活方式,碳排放达峰后稳中有降,是全面建成社会主义现代化强国的总体目标之一。本文利用微观家户消费数据和投入产出表信息,系统性地预测了人口变化通过消费需求对碳排放的影响。研究发现,人口变化不仅通过总人口和总能源消耗的减少降低碳排放,还通过人口结构和消费结构的改变促进低碳转型。人口变化的碳减排效果到2030年可达到约3.0亿吨,到2060年可达到约34.5亿吨,这可为碳达峰时间贡献约1年,为碳中和时间贡献8~10年。在人口变化的远期碳减排效果中,人口总量变化的贡献约占六成,年龄结构变化的贡献约占四成。中国人口变化潜在的碳减排效果巨大。充分考虑人口变化并科学规划转型路径将有助于中国平衡碳减排与稳增长目标,实现经济社会平稳低风险的绿色低碳转型。Promoting a green and low-carbon transformation is essential for China to achieve highquality development and reach its second centenary goal. Population changes play a crucial role in this process, as shifts in population size and age structure influence CO2 emissions. Historical data from developed countries shows that emissions often peak as populations age, suggesting that slower population growth and an aging demographic could naturally lead to emissions reductions. In theory, total population size drives overall energy and goods consumption, while age structure influences life-stage-specific consumption preferences. For instance, older populations typically demand fewer high-carbon manufactured goods and more low-carbon services, which can lower emissions. If demographic changes contribute to reducing carbon emissions, they could support a smoother green transition with less economic disruption. As China's population is projected to decline and age rapidly, understanding the emissions impact of these demographic shifts is crucial for balanced and effective green transition planning, aligning with sustainable development goals.This study examines how population changes modify household consumption, which is a key component of GDP that collectively impact carbon emissions. The research identifies two primary channels through which population changes affect carbon emissions via consumption. First, the population size channel suggests that as population numbers change, the overall level of consumption is adjusted, affecting total carbon emissions in line with the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) hypothesis. Since the elasticity of consumption relative to population size is typically set to 1, changes in population size impact carbon emissions mainly by adjusting aggregate consumption rather than through a scale effect. Second, the age structure channel reveals that as populations age, consumption preferences evolve due to life-stage needs. For example, retired individuals tend to reduce their overall consumptio

关 键 词：人口变化 碳减排 绿色发展 投入产出分析 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]