中国通货膨胀的基本分型与优化治理:经验分析与政策模拟  

Basic Classification and Optimal Governance of China's Inflation:Empirical Analysis and Policy Simulation

作　　者：刘达禹[1,2] 陆宇 田方钰 LIU Dayu;LU Yu;TIAN Fangyu(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University;School of Business and Management,Jilin University;Northeast Asian Studies College,Jilin University)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心 [2]吉林大学商学与管理学院 [3]吉林大学东北亚研究院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2025年第1期29-50,共22页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2024T170338);中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2024M751074);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(24YJA790029)的资助。

摘　　要：本文首先对中国历次典型通货膨胀进行了分型,随后构建多断点费雪方程识别出中央银行应对不同类型通货膨胀的治理方略,并结合通货膨胀直观成本明确了以往时期通货膨胀治理的经验和不足,最后通过政策模拟为优化结构性通货膨胀治理提供了可行预案。研究发现:(1)中国的通货膨胀问题可归为全局性问题和结构性问题两大类,全局性问题可分为全局性通货膨胀和全局性通货紧缩,结构性问题则包括物价正向“剪刀差”和物价逆向“剪刀差”。(2)2012年以前,中国物价端的矛盾主要是以全局性问题呈现,而在2012年以后,结构性问题不断凸显,物价正向及逆向“剪刀差”交替出现。(3)不同类型的通货膨胀问题对应着不同的治理方略,对于全局性问题,令政策利率盯住CPI通常就可以化解;至于结构性问题,令政策利率盯住PPI则能取得较好的治理效果。(4)面对当下全局性低通货膨胀嵌套结构性紧缩的复杂局面,通货膨胀综合治理应更多聚焦于矛盾的始发点。考虑到本轮复杂型低通货膨胀起源于消费端的长效需求不足,故盯住CPI端进行综合治理是最权宜的调控方略。This paper first classifies China's previous typical rounds of inflation,and then employs a“Multi-breakpoint Fisher Equation”to identify the central bank's governance modes for different types of inflation.Combining with the explicit cost of inflation,we further sum up the successful experience and shortcomings of inflation governance,and finally give an optimal governance strategy for structural inflation issues according to the counterfactual policy simulation.The main conclusions are as follows.Firstly,there have been two types of typical inflation in China:the global inflation as well as a structural one.Global inflation is defined as a persistent and large co-movement of price indices on both production and consumer sides.Depending on the direction of price changes,it can be further categorized into global inflation and global deflation.Structural inflation refers to the long-term large deviation between PPI and CPI,also known as the“price scissors difference”.According to the direction of deviation,the structural one could be further classified into“forward price scissors difference”and“reverse price scissors difference”.Secondly,from the intuitive characteristics of the two types of inflation,global inflation has such characteristics as being easy for identification with short duration,which usually won't lead to high economic costs.In contrast,structural inflation is more implicit,and for most time,does not show up at the CPI side.If the central bank couldn't regulate it promptly,it will continue to deteriorate,and in most serious cases,it may even induce the risk of industrial chain disruption.From the practical perspective,the inflation before 2012 is basically global,however after 2012,the structural issues emerge,and the“price scissors difference”alternates between forward and reverse direction frequently.Especially since 2023,there has been a new problem of global deflation combined with structural deflation,which probably leads to new inflation risk.Thirdly,based on early experie

关 键 词：通货膨胀分型 多断点回归模型 政策反事实模拟 通货膨胀分型治理 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]