中美博弈下美国对华出口管制的态势与走向  

Evolution and Trend of US Export Controls Against China Under China-US Game

作　　者：程慧[1] 邢政君 Cheng Hui;Xing Zhengjun(Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation)

机构地区：[1]商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院贸易与投资安全所

出　　处：《国际经济合作》2025年第1期23-32,91,共11页Journal of International Economic Cooperation

摘　　要：中美博弈背景下,美国近两届政府不断推动美国出口管制政策改革,将其打造为对华实施经贸打压的重要制度工具。梳理特朗普第一任期和拜登政府在出口管制领域采取的措施和手段,发现近几年美国对华出口管制呈现出日益政治化、“黑名单”使用愈发频繁、对新兴技术的关注与日俱增、“长臂管辖”愈发扩张、意识形态化愈发凸显、联合围堵持续加强等特征,相关管制措施对中美两国在技术创新、企业经营及产业长期竞争力等方面都具有负面影响,且外溢效应对全球经贸环境产生冲击。未来,美国对华出口管制政策将持续加强,科技领域仍是美国出口管制重点关注领域,而当下“小院高墙”策略及多边联合围堵态势或存在变数。在此基础上,建议中国继续坚持统筹发展和安全两件大事,保持战略定力,扎实推进自身发展,同时加强对话,持续做重点国别工作,迟滞美国对华“脱钩”进程。In the context of China-US game,the past two administrations of the US have continuously promoted the reform of the US export control policies,making it an important institutional tool for implementing economic and trade suppression against China.By reviewing the measures adopted by the Trump(first term)and Biden administrations in the field of export controls,it is found that in recent years,the US export controls against China have exhibited such characteristics as increasing politicization of export controls,more frequent use of blacklists,heightened focus on emerging technologies,expanding the scope of longarm jurisdiction,growing ideological overtones,and intensified joint containment.Relevant control measures have had a negative impact on technological innovation,corporate operations,and the long-term industrial competitiveness of China and the US,and their spillover effects have introduced significant disruptions to the global economic and trade environment.In the future,the US export control policies against China are likely to continue tightening,with the science and technology sector remaining a key focus.The Us'current"small yard,high fence"strategy and the multilateral joint containment trend may be subject to changes.On this basis,it is recommended that China continue to prioritize coordinated development and security,maintain firm strategic resolve,and steadily advance its own development.Meanwhile,China should enhance dialogue between China and the US,deepen engagement with major countries,and delay the US decoupling from China.

关 键 词：出口管制 中美博弈 特朗普 科技竞争 半导体产业 供应链 

分 类 号：D822.3[政治法律—政治学] F752.7[政治法律—外交学] F757[经济管理—国际贸易]