基于皮尔逊Ⅲ型曲线的不同降雨工况下的崩滑地质灾害危险性评价  

Risk assessment of landslide geological hazards under different rainfall conditions based on the PearsonⅢcurves

作　　者：王灿星 朱杰勇[1,2] 喻聪骏 刘家恺 祝传兵 WANG Canxing;ZHU Jieyong;YU Congjun;LIU Jiakai;ZHU Chuanbing(Faculty of Land and Resources Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China;Key Laboratory of Geohazard Forecast and Geological Restoration in Plateau Mountainous Area,Ministry of Natural Resources,Kunming 650093,China;Geological Environment Monitoring Institute of Jiangxi Geological Survey and Exploration Institute,Nanchang 330000,China;Yunnan Institute of Geological Environment Monitoring,Kunming 650216,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,昆明650093 [2]自然资源部高原山地地质灾害预报预警与生态保护修复重点实验室,昆明650093 [3]江西省地质调查勘查院地质环境监测所,南昌330000 [4]云南省地质环境监测院,昆明650216

出　　处：《地质科技通报》2025年第1期194-204,共11页Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology

摘　　要：降雨是诱发滑坡崩塌等地质灾害的重要因素之一,极大地威胁着群众的生命财产安全,为有依据地采取防治措施以及避险搬迁。以云南省维西县叶枝镇为研究区,选取高程、土地利用类型、坡度、坡向、地貌类型、工程地质岩组、河流距离、断层距离、曲率9个评价因子,以栅格单元作为评价单元,采用随机森林算法和加权信息量法对评价因子进行权重分析,作出易发性评价,并在此基础上选择降雨量作为危险性评价因子,通过计算和皮尔逊Ⅲ型曲线预测研究区10 a一遇、20 a一遇、50 a一遇、100 a一遇的降雨量,得出4种不同的降雨工况,作出危险性评价。由统计所得,将易发性评价结果按照自然间断点法分成低、中、高、极高易发区4个等级,分别占据研究区面积32.80%,34.02%,21.96%,11.22%,用ROC曲线对其作精度验证,AUC值为89.2%;基于4种降雨工况条件下的地质灾害危险性评价结果,分别分出低、中、高、极高危险区4种等级,并对评价结果进行了对比分析。通过与实际调查情况对比,本研究得出的崩滑地质灾害危险性评价结果与实际情况较为吻合,能够为防灾减灾、避险搬迁提供合理依据。[Objective]Rainfall is one of the important factors that induce geological disasters,such as landslides and collapses,posing a great threat to the safety of people's lives and property.Therefore,it is necessary to take effective prevention and control measures as well as to avoid and relocate.[Methods]This study takes Yezhi Town,Weixi County,Yunnan Province as the study area,and the grid unit is used as the evaluation unit.Nine evaluation factors,including elevation,land use type,slope,aspect,elevation,landform type,engineering geological rock group,land use type,distance from river,distance from fault,and curvature were selected.The random forest algorithm and weighted information method were used to analyze the weight of evaluation factors,and a susceptibility evaluation was also made.Based on this,rainfall was selected as the risk assessment factor.By calculating and predicting the rainfall in the study area with PearsonⅢcurve,rainfall in the study area was predicted for every 10 years,20 years,50 years,and 100 years,and a risk assessment was obtained.[Results]According to statistics,the susceptibility assessment results are divided into four levels using the natural discontinuity method:low,medium,high,and extremely high-susceptibility areas,which account for 32.80%,34.02%,21.96%,and 11.22%of the study area respectively.The ROC curves were used to verify the accuracy,and the AUC value was 89.2%.[Conclusion]By comparing the actual investigation situation,the landslide and collapse risk assessment results under different rainfall conditions are highly consistent with the actual situation.This study provides a basis for reasonable disaster prevention and mitigation,as well as risk avoidance and relocation.

关 键 词：加权信息量模型 易发性评价 降雨工况 危险性评价 崩滑地质灾害 皮尔逊Ⅲ型曲线 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]