农业新质生产力的影响因素及发展思路研究——基于DEA⁃Tobit模型的河南省18地市测度比较  

The Influence Factors and Development Ideas of New Quality Productive Forces in Agriculture:A Measurement Comparison Based on the DEA⁃Tobit Model in 18 Cities of Henan Province

作　　者：胡笑冉 何静[1] 宗传宏[2] HU Xiaoran;HE Jing;ZONG Chuanhong(Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306;Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200030)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306 [2]上海社会科学院,上海200030

出　　处：《上海管理科学》2025年第1期67-72,共6页Shanghai Management Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划项目(23YJA630031);国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD100);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71871144)。

摘　　要：全要素生产率是新质生产力的核心标志。为此,选取河南省18地市2016-2021年的面板数据,运用DEA⁃Malmquist指数模型,从分年度、分区域角度对农业新质生产力的变化特征进行研究,最后利用Tobit模型对影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,河南省农业新质生产力在2016-2021年总体处于上升趋势,18地市存在一定的差距;从分解指标来看,18地市的技术进步水平呈增长趋势,部分地市的技术效率受规模效率不经济问题影响呈现下降趋势;农业经济水平、文化程度对河南省农业全要素生产率增长存在显著的正向影响,自然灾害、农民生活水平、产业结构、能源利用则反向抑制了河南省农业新质生产力的提升。Total factor productivity is the core symbol of new quality productivity.Therefore,this paper selects the panel data of 18 cities(Districts)in Henan Province from 2016 to 2021,uses the DeaMalmquist index model to study the change characteristics of agricultural new quality productivity from the perspective of subyear and subregion,and finally uses the Tobit model to conduct an empirical analysis of the influencing factors.The results showed that the agricultural new quality productivity in Henan Province was on the rise from 2016 to 2021,and there was a certain gap in 18 cities(Districts).From the decomposition index,the technical progress level of 18 cities(Districts)shows an increasing trend,while the technical efficiency of some cities(Districts)shows a decreasing trend due to the problem of scale efficiency economy.Agricultural economic level and educational level have significant positive effects on the growth of agricultural total factor productivity in Henan Province,while natural disasters,farmers'living standards,industrial structure and energy utilization negatively inhibit the improvement of agricultural new quality productivity in Henan Province.

关 键 词：新质生产力 DEA⁃Tobit模型 农业全要素生产率 河南省 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]