风暴潮灾害下沿海城市变电站断电预警  

Warning Power Outage at Coastal City Substations During Storm Surge Disasters

作　　者：尹奕堃 陈厚合[1] 胡枭 高扬[3] 马溯 陈好杰 YIN Yikun;CHEN Houhe;HU Xiao;GAO Yang;MA Su;CHEN Haojie(School of Electrical Engineering,Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin 132012,Jilin Province,China;School of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology,Changchun Institute of Technology,Changchun 130012,Jilin Province,China;Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion(Shanghai Jiao Tong University),Ministry of Education,Minhang District,Shanghai 200240,China;State Grid Zibo Power Supply Company,Zibo 255000,Shandong Province,China)

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学电气工程学院,吉林省吉林市132012 [2]长春工程学院电气与信息工程学院,吉林省长春市130012 [3]电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室(上海交通大学),上海市闵行区200240 [4]国网淄博供电公司,山东省淄博市255000

出　　处：《电网技术》2025年第2期481-489,I0029,共10页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52077028)。

摘　　要：风暴潮灾害会导致停电,需要先进的态势感知技术确保风暴潮期间的电网安全。以往的研究都是针对台风灾害而设计的,并没有考虑到风暴潮对变电站的影响。为了解决以上问题,提出一个能够感知风暴潮期间电网安全态势的框架,利用地理、气象数据和电力设备信息,对变电站发出停电警告。首先,采用ArcGIS 10.8地理信息系统收集沿海城市的高分辨率激光雷达数据,从而构建能够实现镜像计算的数字孪生体。然后,将地理、气象数据和电力设备信息输入Stacking模型,实现确定性和概率性的停电预警。最后,将该框架应用于一个中国沿海城市。结果表明,上述框架在不同尺度的数据集上都具备有效性和准确性。Storm surge disasters can lead to power outages.This calls for advanced situational awareness technologies to ensure electrical grid security during storm surge events.However,existing efforts are designed for typhoon disasters and fail to consider the impact of storm surges on substations.To address this issue,we propose a grid security situation-aware warning framework.Our approach leverages geospatial meteorological data and information about power equipment to issue warnings regarding power outages at substations.We employ ArcGIS 10.8 to collect high-resolution LiDAR data on coastal cities,enabling the creation of digital twins.Furthermore,by inputting geographic information data,meteorological data,and power equipment information into a stacking model,we achieve deterministic and probabilistic power outage warnings for substations during storm surges.We apply it to a coastal city in China.The results demonstrate the effectiveness and reliable accuracy across datasets of varying scales of our approach.

关 键 词：镜像计算 人工智能 风暴潮灾害 电网安全 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]