基于属性数学理论的电网停电事故网络舆情风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Online Public Opinion on Power Grid Outage Incidents Based on Attribute Mathematical Theory

作　　者：于群 英启昊 曹娜 何剑 孙为民 张晓涵 YU Qun;YING Qihao;CAO Na;HE Jian;SUN Weimin;ZHANG Xiaohan(School of Electrical and Automation Engineering,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,Shandong Province,China;China Electric Power Research Institute,Haidian District,Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学电气与自动化工程学院,山东省青岛市266590 [2]中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京市海淀区100192

出　　处：《电网技术》2025年第2期719-726,I0097,I0098,共10页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家电网有限公司总部科技项目(5100-202155482A-0-5-ZN)。

摘　　要：电力是现代生活中不可或缺的一部分,停电事故的发生会影响人民的正常生活,不仅会对社会安全和经济安全造成巨大影响,也会引发相关的网络舆情。若网络舆情引导不当,将严重威胁社会稳定和国家安全。网络舆情风险评估是网络舆情引导的基础,通过分析停电事故与网络舆情的关系,从事件主体特性、公众关注度和政府调控力度3个维度建立了停电事故网络舆情风险评估体系,提出了一种基于熵权法和属性数学理论的停电事故网络舆情风险评估模型,并以2021年美国得州停电和2020年美国加州停电两次事故为例进行实证研究,得到两次停电事故造成的网络舆情风险等级,并将结果与层次分析法和网络舆情平台的结果进行了对比,验证了所提出评估方法的合理性和可行性。Electricity is an indispensable part of modern life,and the occurrence of blackout accidents will affect people's normal lives,which will have a great impact on social security and economic security and lead to relevant online public opinion.If online public opinion is not properly guided,it will seriously threaten social stability and national security.Online public opinion risk assessment is the foundation of online public opinion guidance.By analyzing the relationship between power outage accidents and online public opinion,we establish a risk assessment system for online public opinion on power outage accidents in three dimensions:characteristics of the subject of the event,public concern,and government regulation efforts,and put forward a model for assessing the risk of online public opinion on power outage accidents based on the entropy power method and attribute mathematical theory.The two accidents in Texas,USA,in 2021 and California,USA,in 2020 are used as examples for empirical research to obtain the risk level of online public opinion caused by the two blackout accidents.The results are compared with those of the hierarchical analysis method and the online public opinion platform,which verifies the reasonableness and feasibility of the proposed assessment method.

关 键 词：大停电事故 网络舆情 属性数学理论 熵权法 风险评估 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]