心房颤动冷冻球囊消融术后复发的影响因素及预测模型  

The influencing factors and predictive model of recurrence of atrial fibrillation after cryoballoon ablation

作　　者：杨艳[1] 王志江[1] YANG Yan;WANG Zhijiang(The Second People's Hospital of Shizuishan City,Shizuishan 753000,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏石嘴山市第二人民医院,宁夏石嘴山753000

出　　处：《宁夏医学杂志》2025年第1期47-51,共5页Ningxia Medical Journal

摘　　要：目的探讨心房颤动(AF)冷冻球囊消融术后复发的影响因素,构建风险预测模型。方法回顾性分析接受冷冻球囊消融术治疗的104例心房颤动患者的病历资料。根据患者术后随访12个月内复发情况将其分为复发组(21例)与非复发组(83例),分析心房颤动患者冷冻球囊消融术后复发的风险因素,构建风险预测模型并验证。结果104例心房颤动患者中,冷冻球囊消融术后复发21例,复发率为20.19%。复发组左房内径(LAD)、左心室舒张末期内径(LVEDD)及血小板衍生生长因子(PDGF)高于非复发组(P<0.05),SRs及SRe绝对值低于非复发组(P<0.05)。LAD(OR=3.274,95%CI:1.307~8.201)、LVEDD(OR=3.579,95%CI:1.429~8.964)、PDGF(OR=3.951,95%CI:1.578~9.897)、SRs(OR=0.283,95%CI:0.113~0.709)、SRe(OR=0.205,95%CI:0.082~0.514)是心房颤动患者术后复发的危险因素(P<0.05)。风险模型预测心房颤动患者冷冻球囊消融治疗术后复发的曲线下面积为0.864(95%CI:0.809~0.932)。结论LAD、LVEDD、PDGF、SRs、SRe与心房颤动患者冷冻球囊消融治疗术后复发有关,构建风险预测模型有助于早期甄别心房颤动患者术后复发风险。Objective To investigate the various factors that influence the recurrence of atrial fibrillation following cryoballoon ablation,and subsequently,to establish a predictive model for risk assessment.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on medical records of 104 atrial fibrillation patients who underwent cryoballoon ablation treatment.Based on the recurrence status within a 12-month following-up period after surgery,patients were categorized into recurrent group(n=21)and non-recurrent groups(n=83).The risk factors associated with recurrence following the application of cryoballoon ablation therapy among patients diagnosed with atrial fibrillation were analyzed,and a risk prediction model was constructed and validated.Results Among 104 atrial fibrillation patients undergoing cryoballoon ablation,21 cases(20.19%)experienced recurrence postoperatively.In the recurrent group,left atrial diameter(LAD),left ventricular end-diastolic diameter(LVEDD),and platelet derived growth factor(PDGF)were higher compared to the non-recurrent group(P<0.05),while the absolute values of SRs and SRe were lower(P<0.05).LAD(OR=3.274,95%CI:1.307~8.201),LVEDD(OR=3.579,95%CI:1.429~8.964),PDGF(OR=3.951,95%CI:1.578~9.897),SRs(OR=0.283,95%CI:0.113~0.709),and SRe(OR=0.205,95%CI:0.082~0.514)were identified as risk factors for recurrence following cryoballoon ablation in atrial fibrillation patients(P<0.05).The area under the curve for predicting postoperative recurrence in patients with atrial fibrillation after cryoablation using the risk model was 0.864(95%CI:0.809~0.932).Conclusion LAD,LVEDD,PDGF,SRs,and SRe are associated with postoperative recurrence in atrial fibrillation patients undergoing cryoballoon ablation.Risk prediction model can help identify the risk of postoperative recurrence in atrial fibrillation patients at an early stage.

关 键 词：心房颤动 冷冻球囊消融 影响因素 预测模型 

分 类 号：R541.75[医药卫生—心血管疾病]