基于优化的MaxEnt模型预测朱顶红花叶病毒的潜在地理分布  

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Hippeastrum mosaic virus by using the optimized MaxEnt model

作　　者：刘静远 杨宇超 于子祥 田沂民 何坤林 汪莹 秦誉嘉[4] 滕凯 余慧[6] 于翠 LIU Jingyuan;YANG Yuchao;YU Zixiang;TIAN Yimin;HE Kunlin;WANG Ying;QIN Yujia;TENG Kai;YU Hui;YU Cui(Center for Animal,Plant and Food Inspection and Quarantine,Shanghai Customs District,Shanghai 200135,China;Shanghai Customs College,Shanghai 201204,China;Center for Animal and Plant Inspection and Quarantine,Shenzhen Customs District,Shenzhen 518045,China;China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;Shanghai Customs District,Shanghai 200135,China;Shanghai Agricultural Technology Extension and Service Centre,Shanghai 201103,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海关动植物与食品检验检疫技术中心,上海200135 [2]上海海关学院,上海201204 [3]深圳海关动植物检验检疫技术中心,深圳518045 [4]中国农业大学,北京100193 [5]上海海关,上海200135 [6]上海市农业技术推广服务中心,上海201103

出　　处：《植物保护》2025年第1期95-101,共7页Plant Protection

基　　金：深圳市科技计划(KCXFZ20230731093259009);国家重点研发计划(2023YFC2605200)。

摘　　要：为探究朱顶红花叶病毒(Hippeastrum mosaic virus,HiMV)在全球的潜在地理分布,基于HiMV在全球的分布数据,运用MaxEnt模型与ArcGIS 10.2空间分析软件预测HiMV在历史和未来的2个不同气候场景条件下(低强迫场景SSP126、高强迫场景SSP585)的潜在地理分布。MaxEnt模型的测试者特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)为0.940,预测结果可靠性高。对HiMV分布有重要影响的环境因子是:最干季均温(bio 9)、最湿月降水量(bio 13)、最干月降水量(bio 14)、最湿季均温(bio 8)和月平均昼夜温差(bio 2)。在历史气候条件下,HiMV在欧洲、中美洲及南美洲中南部、亚洲南部、大洋洲及非洲中部广泛适生;在我国除新疆、青海、甘肃西部、内蒙古、黑龙江、吉林、西藏及四川西部以外的地区适生;在未来气候情景下,HiMV分布在欧洲呈现向东扩的趋势,在我国的适生区可向北延伸至吉林、黑龙江。To investigate the potential global geographical distribution of Hippeastrum mosaic virus(HiMV),the MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS 10.2 software were used to predict its potential geographical distribution under historical and future climate scenarios(low-stress scenario SSP126 and high-stress scenario SSP585).The results showed that the MaxEnt model’s receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve had an area under curve(AUC)of 0.940,indicating high predictive reliability.The significant factors affecting the distribution of HiMV were mean temperature of driest quarter(bio 9),precipitation of wettest month(bio 13),precipitation of driest month(bio 14),mean temperature of wettest quarter(bio 8),and mean diurnal range(bio 2).Under historical climatic conditions,HiMV was widely suitable in Europe,Central and South America,South Asia,Oceania,and Central Africa.In China,suitable areas included most regions except Xinjiang,Qinghai,Inner Mongolia,western Gansu,Heilongjiang,Jilin,Xizang,and western Sichuan.Under future climatic conditions,the distribution of HiMV is expected to expand eastward in Europe and northward in China,reaching Jilin and Heilongjiang.

关 键 词：朱顶红花叶病毒 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 潜在地理分布 

分 类 号：S436.8[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]