房地产调控的风险溢出效应——来自融资平台购地的证据  

The Risk Spillover Effects of Real Estate Regulation:Evidence from LGFV's Land Purchase

作　　者：曹婧 Cao Jing(Institute of Finance and Banking,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所

出　　处：《管理世界》2025年第1期96-107,共12页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“地方政府土地融资模式转变:形成机理与经济效应”(基金号:72203228);中国社会科学院青启计划“地方政府‘以地谋发展’的风险分析与转型路径”(基金号:2024QQJH118);中国社会科学院学科建设“登峰战略”资助计划优势学科“金融与发展”(基金号:DF2023YS28)的资助。

摘　　要：在房地产业向新发展模式转型的过程中,房地产风险与隐性债务风险交织互溢,防范化解上述两大重点领域风险是统筹好发展和安全的关键所在。在此背景下,本文基于2016~2021年微观土地交易数据和融资平台财务信息,选取房地产贷款集中度管理作为外生冲击,分析房地产信贷调控通过融资平台购地托底产生的风险溢出效应。研究发现,房地产信贷调控趋严显著增加了融资平台购地金额和面积,这一影响主要来自融资平台低溢价购置郊区地块,发挥土地市场托底作用。由于土地溢价率较低和房地产开发能力不足,融资平台举债购地后较少开展土地抵押融资、房地产开发经营和土地转让出租,而是以地方政府部分返还土地出让金的方式缓解流动性压力。因此,房地产信贷调控收紧后,融资平台低溢价购地使其偿债压力加大和盈利能力弱化,从而引发房地产风险外溢至地方政府隐性债务风险。本文的研究结论为经济金融风险的跨市场溢出效应提供了新的经验证据,对于构建房地产调控长效机制和防范房地产业引发系统性风险具有政策启示。In the process of transforming the real estate industry into a new development model,real estate risks are intertwined with im⁃plicit debt risks.Preventing and resolving the two important risks mentioned above is the key to coordinating development and security.Based on the micro-level land transaction data and financial information of local government financing vehicle(LGFV)from 2016 to 2021,this paper uses the real estate loan concentration management as an exogenous shock,to empirically analyze the risk spillover effects of real estate credit regulation through the channel of LGFV's land purchase.We find that the tightening of real estate credit regulation significantly increases the amount and area of land purchased by LGFVs.This positive impact mainly comes from the purchase of suburban land at low premiums,which indicates that local governments resort to the LGFV's land acquisition to cope with downward pressure in the real estate market.Due to the low land premium rate and insufficient real estate development capacity,LGFVs rarely engage in land mortgage financing,real estate develop⁃ment and operation,and land transfer and rental after borrowing to purchase land.Instead,local governments alleviate the liquidity pressure on LGFVs by partial refunds of land leasing fees.Therefore,after the tightening of real estate credit regulation,LGFV's land purchase at low premiums has increased their debt repayment pressure and weakened their profitability,thereby triggering the risk spillover effects of real es⁃tate regulation to local government implicit debt.The above findings provide new empirical evidence for cross-market spillover of economic and financial risks,and have policy implications for establishing a long-term mechanism of real estate regulation and preventing the systemic risks caused by the real estate industry.

关 键 词：房地产调控 风险溢出 融资平台 土地出让 

分 类 号：F29[经济管理—国民经济]