1960—2020年滇中地区极端降水指标时空演变规律研究  

Variation characteristics of extreme precipitation indicators in central Yunnan Province from 1960 to 2020

作　　者：李加顺 赵伟华[3] 刘丽 周彩霞 LI Jiashun;ZHAO Weihua;LIU Li;ZHOU Caixia(Yunnan Water Science Research Institute,Kunming 650228,Yunnan,China;Yunnan Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion Prevention and Green Development,Kunming 650228,Yunnan,China;Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省水利水电科学研究院,云南昆明650228 [2]云南省水土流失防治与绿色发展重点实验室,云南昆明650228 [3]长江水利委员会长江科学院,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《水利水电技术(中英文)》2025年第1期1-14,共14页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52009118)。

摘　　要：【目的】极端降水是产生洪涝灾害的首要原因之一,对农业生产有重要影响,为探讨云南省滇中地区极端降水指标的时空演变规律,【方法】利用1960—2020年滇中地区44个气象台站日降水数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析、Sen斜率估计、连续小波分析研究了极端降水指标的年内、年际及周期性变化特征。【结果】结果显示:60年来,发现在年内1 d最大降水量(Rx1day)、5 d最大降水量(Rx5day)、降水强度(SDII)、中雨以上日数(R10)、大雨以上日数(R20)、持续湿期日数(CWD)、强降水量(R95p)和特强降水量(R99p)均呈现先增加后减小的趋势;持续干期日数(CDD)表现为先减小后增加的趋势。在年尺度上,Rx1day、SDII、R99p呈显著增加的趋势,CDD、Rx5day、R10、R20、R95p和总降水量(PRCPTOT)变化趋势不显著,CWD呈显著减小的趋势;Rx1day、Rx5day、R10、R20、R95p、R99p和PRCPTOT高值区位于滇中地区的西北部、东北部及东南部,低值区位于滇中地区的中偏西部;SDII高值区位于滇中地区的西北部,低值区位于滇中地区的中偏西部;CDD呈自西北向东南逐渐减小的趋势;CWD高值区位于滇中地区的西北部、东南部和中部,低值区位于滇中地区的中偏西部;小波分析显示Rx1day、Rx5day、R10、R20、SDI、CDD、CWD、R95p、R99p和PRCPTOT均存在8a内的周期特性。【结论】结果表明:Mann-Kendall趋势分析对于降水要素时间序列变化趋势和突变点分析,能发挥重要的作用;Sen斜率估计针对降水要素长时间序列数据的趋势分析,起到至关重要的作用;连续小波分析能够推断出降水要素存在的周期性变化,有很大的推广应用价值。通过对滇中地区极端降水指标时空演变规律研究,可为滇中地区灌溉排水规划及防灾减灾提供参考依据。[Objective]Extreme precipitation is an important fact that lead to flood-waterlogging disaster and has an important impact on agricultural production.To explore the spatiotemporal evolution law of extreme precipitation indicators in the central area of Yunnan Province.[Methods]Based on the daily precipitation date at 44 stations from 1960 to 2020,the variation trends and period characteristics of extreme precipitation indices in central Yunnan Province is nalyzed.[Results]The result showed:Over the past 60 years,maximum 1-day precipitation(Rx1day),maximum 5-day precipitation(Rx5day),simple daily intensity index(SDII),≥10 mm precipitation days(R10),days≥20 mm precipitation days(R20),maximum consecutive wet days(CWD),very wet day precipitation(R95p),and Extremely wet day precipitation(R99p)exhibit an initial increasing trend followed by a subsequent decreasing trend.Conversely,maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)demonstrates an initial decreasing trend before transitioning into an increasing trend.Rx1day,SDII and R99phad a significant increasing trend,while CDD,Rx5day,R10,R20,R95p and Total precipitation amount(PRCPTOT)showed no significant change trend,and CWD had a significant decreasing trend.The high values of Rx1day,Rx5day,R10,R20,R95p,R99p and PRCPTOT are located in the northwest,northeast and southeast of the central Yunnan region,and the low values are located in the west-central Yunnan region.The high value of SDII is located in the northwest of the central Yunnan region,and the low value is located in the central western part of the central Yunnan region.The CDD exhibited a gradient of decrease from the northwest to the southeast.The high value of CWD is located in the northwest,southeast and central part of the central Yunnan region,and the low value is located in the west-central part of the central Yunnan region.Wavelet analysis shows that Rx1day,Rx5day,R10,R20,SDI,CDD,CWD,R95p,R99p and PRCPTOT all have periodicity within 8a.[Conclusion]Mann Kendall trend analysis can play an important role in analyzi

关 键 词：极端降水指标 Mann-Kendall趋势分析 Sen斜率估计 连续小波分析 滇中地区 气候变化 时空分布 降雨 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]