气候和土地利用变化对松华坝来水量的影响  

Impacts of climate and land use change on the inflow of water to Songhuaba reservoir

作　　者：孔功 朱大伟 谢伊娜 李小红[2] 张洪波[1] 张润云 KONG Gong;ZHU Dawei;XIE Yina;LI Xiaohong;ZHANG Hongbo;ZHANG Runyun(School of Kunming University of Science and Technology Power Engineering,Kunming 650500,Yunnan,China;Jiangsu Water Resources and Design Institute Co.,Yangzhou 225000,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学电力工程学院,云南昆明650500 [2]江苏省水利勘测设计研究院有限公司,江苏扬州225000

出　　处：《水利水电技术(中英文)》2025年第1期143-154,共12页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：水灾害防御全国重点实验室“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金项目(2022490411);云南省自然科学基金项目(2023Y0410);长江下游洪涝灾害集成调控与应急除险技术装备国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000100)。

摘　　要：【目的】为定量评估气候和土地利用变化对松华坝来水量的贡献,【方法】基于松华坝水源保护区建立以来的多时期气候和土地利用数据,采用气候倾向率和MK趋势检验方法分析气候变化趋势,利用GIS空间叠加工具分析土地利用时空变化特征,并结合SWAT模型模拟流域水文过程,分析气候和土地利用变化对水库来水量的影响。【结果】结果表明:1980—2014年间气温以0.586℃/10 a的速率上升,降水以12.5 mm/10 a的速率减少。耕地、林地、灌木和草地为研究区主要的土地利用类型,1980—2010年间耕地面积增长,林地略有退化,该变化使得来水量增加。【结论】气候变化是导致水库来水量变化的主要原因,历史变化情景下秋季来水量变化最为敏感。气温和降水变化对来水量的共同作用和单独作用都不呈线性关系。气温升高1℃情景下,月均来水量减少63.6万m^(3);降水增加10%情景下,月均来水量增加423.4万m^(3)。[Objective]To quantitatively assess the contribution of climate and land use changes to the inflow of Songhuaba reservoir,[Methods]based on multi-period climate and land-use data since the establishment of Songhuaba water conservation district,the climate change trend is analyzed by the method of Climate Propensity Rate and MK trend test,the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of land use are explored by the GIS spatial overlay tool,and the watershed hydrological processes are simulated by SWAT model,so as to analyze the impacts of climate and land use changes on the reservoir inflow of the study area.[Results]The results show that temperature of the study area increases at a rate of 0.586℃/10 a and precipitation decreases at a rate of 12.5 mm/10 a during 1980—2014.The main land use types in the study area include cropland,forest,shrub and grassland.Between 1980 and 2010,the size of cropland increases while forest slightly declines,which result ed in the increase of the reservoir inflow.[Conclusion]Climate change is the main cause of the reservoir inflow variation,and the autumn inflow is the most sensitive in the historical change scenarios.Changes in temperature and precipitation are not linearly related to the inflow amount,either jointly or individually.The average monthly inflow decreases by 0.636 million m^(3) with the temperature increase of 1℃,and increases by 4.234 million m^(3) with 10% increase of precipitation.

关 键 词：气候变化 土地利用变化 SWAT模型 水库来水量 松华坝流域 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]