Assessing the impact of comorbid type 2 diabetes mellitus on the disease burden of chronic hepatitis B virus infection and its complications in China from 2006 to 2030:a modeling study  

作　　者：Jinzhao Xie Xu Wang Xinran Wang Jinghua Li Yusheng Jie Yuantao Hao Jing Gu 

机构地区：[1]Department of Medical Statistics,School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,China [2]Sun Yat‑sen Global Health Institute,School of Public Health and Institute of State Governance,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,China [3]Key Laboratory of Health Informatics of Guangdong Province,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,China [4]Department of Infectious Diseases,The Third Affiliated Hospital,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,China [5]Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness and Response,Peking University,Beijing,China

出　　处：《Global Health Research and Policy》2024年第1期567-577,共11页全球健康研究与政策(英文)

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71774178);Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong(Grant No.2017A020212006);National Science and Technology Major Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.2018ZX10715004).

摘　　要：Background China bears a high burden of both hepatitis B virus(HBV)infection and type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM).T2DM accelerates the progression of liver disease among individuals infected with HBV.This study aims to assess the excess disease burden caused by comorbid T2DM among HBV-infected individuals in China.Methods We estimated the disease burden of HBV and its complications in China from 2006 to 2030 using individual-based Markov models.The baseline population consisted of 93 million HBV-infected individuals derived from the 2006 National Serological Epidemiological Survey.We developed two models:one incorporated the impact of T2DM on the disease progression of HBV infection,while the other did not consider the impact of T2DM.By com-paring the outcomes between these two models,we estimated the excess disease burden attributable to comorbid T2DM among HBV-infected individuals.Results The incidence of severe HBV complications,including cirrhosis,hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC),and liver-related deaths,exhibited an increasing trend from 2006 to 2030 among the Chinese HBV-infected population.Comor-bid T2DM increased the annual incidence and cumulative cases of severe HBV complications.From 2006 to 2022,comorbid T2DM caused 791,000(11.41%),244,000(9.27%),377,000(8.78%),and 796,000(12.19%)excess cases of compensated cirrhosis,decompensated cirrhosis,HCC,and liver-related deaths,respectively.From 2023 to 2030,comorbid T2DM is projected to result in an 8.69%excess in severe HBV complications and an 8.95%increase in liver-related deaths.Among individuals aged 60 and older at baseline,comorbid T2DM led to a 21.68%excess in severe HBV complications and a 28.70%increase in liver-related deaths from 2006 to 2022,with projections indicating a fur-ther 20.76%increase in severe HBV complications and an 18.31%rise in liver-related deaths over the next seven years.Conclusions Comorbid T2DM imposes a substantial disease burden on individuals with HBV infection in China.Healthcare providers and health policymakers should develop

关 键 词：Hepatitis B virus infection Diabetes mellitus COMORBIDITY China MARKOV Disease burden 

分 类 号：R58[医药卫生—内分泌]