Research on equity analysis and forecasting of nursing human resource allocation in Jiangxi Province,China  

中国江西省护理人力资源配置公平性分析与预测研究

作　　者：Yunyu Du Zhiqin Xie Zhen Yang Wanyin Xiong Li Zhou Min Zhang Suhua Zeng Min Wang 杜韫雨;谢志勤;杨珍;熊万银;周丽;张敏;曾苏华;王敏

机构地区：[1]Department of Thoracic Surgery,The First Affiliated Hospital,Jiangxi Medical College,Nanchang University,Nanchang,Jiangxi,China [2]Department of Nursing,The First Affiliated Hospital,Jiangxi Medical College,Nanchang University,Nanchang,Jiangxi,China [3]Jiangxi Medical Center for Critical Public Health Events,The First Affiliated Hospital,Jiangxi Medical College,Nanchang University,Nanchang,Jiangxi,China

出　　处：《International Journal of Nursing Sciences》2025年第1期19-26,I0001,共9页国际护理科学(英文)

摘　　要：Objectives:This study aimed to assess the equity of nursing human resource allocation in Jiangxi Province,China,and forecast future trends in the next five years.Methods:We used the related data from the China Statistical Yearbook,China Health Statistics Yearbook,and Jiangxi Statistical Yearbook(2003-2022).The equity of nursing human resource allocation was evaluated using Lorenz curves,Gini coefficients,and Theil index,from the perspective of population and geographical area.Demands for nursing human resource in Jiangxi Province from 2023 to 2027 were forecasted using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)and Grey(1,1)models.Results:From 2003 to 2022,all the key nursing human resource indicators continuously increased;the number of registered nurses in Jiangxi Province increased by 109,786,with an average annual growth rate of 7.80%.Registered nurses per 1,000 population rose by 2.21,while nurses per square kilometer increased by 0.66.Jiangxi Province has surpassed the national level in several nursing resource indicators,including registered nurses as a percentage of health technicians,registered nurses per square kilometer,and doctor-to-nurse ratio.Within the province,all indicators in cities are higher than those in county-level regions.Among the cities in Jiangxi Province,Ganzhou City had the highest number of registered nurses,Xinyu City led in the doctor-to-nurse ratio,and Nanchang City had the highest bed-tonurse ratio.In 2022,the Gini coefficients for registered nurses in Jiangxi Province were 0.09 by population and 0.34 by geographical area,reflecting the allocation of registered nurses in Jiangxi Province is highly equitable by population but relatively equitable by geographical area.Forecasting results suggested that the number of registered nurses in Jiangxi Province will reach 170,100 by 2027,indicating continued growth and improvement in nursing resource allocation.Conclusions:Over the past two decades,the human nursing resources in Jiangxi Province have grown substantially.The absolut目的调查中国江西省护理人力资源的配置现状并评价其公平性,分析未来五年的变化趋势并对需求量进行预测。方法利用《中国统计年鉴》《中国卫生统计年鉴》和《江西统计年鉴》中2003年至2022年全国以及江西省卫生资源的相关数据,采用洛伦兹曲线、基尼系数与泰尔系数评价护理人力资源分布的公平性,并从人口和地理区域两个角度分别进行评价。使用自回归求和移动平均模型和灰色模型预测2023年至2027年江西省护理人力资源的需求量。结果从2003年至2022年,注册护士总人数增加了109786人;年均增长率为7.80%;每千人口注册护士增加2.21人;每平方公里人口注册护士增加0.66人;医护比从1∶0.70提高至1∶1.27;床护比从1∶0.41提高至1∶0.46。从人口分布的角度看,江西省注册护士的基尼系数为0.09,达到绝对公平;而在地域分布上,基尼系数为0.34,为相对公平。预测数据显示至2027年,江西省注册护士人数将达到171000人。结论该研究为优化江西省未来护理人力资源的分配提供了借鉴价值,为确保患者公平获得医疗保健服务奠定了基础。

关 键 词：Forecasting EQUITY Nursing administration Nursing human resource 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]