共有目标、身份构建与“新哈萨克斯坦”愿景的实施路径  

The Vision of“New Kazakhstan”:Shared Goals,Identity Construction,and Implementation Pathways

作　　者：陈亚州[1,2] 吴榕彬 Chen Yazhou;Wu Rongbin(School of Political and International Relations and Institute for Central Asian Studies,Lanzhou University;School of Political Science and International Relations,Lanzhou University)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学政治与国际关系学院,兰州730000 [2]兰州大学中亚研究所,兰州730000

出　　处：《区域国别学刊》2025年第1期77-97,158,共22页COUNTRY AND AREA STUDIES

基　　金：2024年度兰州大学“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”重点研究基地项目“俄乌冲突后大国在中亚竞合的新态势”(项目编号:2024jbkyjd001)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：设定共有目标,建构共有身份,进而引导共同行动,是愿景政治的作用机理。2022年哈萨克斯坦“一月事件”后,托卡耶夫提出了“新哈萨克斯坦”愿景。从愿景政治视角而言,共有目标设置是“新哈萨克斯坦”愿景的生成前提,国家身份构建是“新哈萨克斯坦”愿景的运行基础,引导共同行动是“新哈萨克斯坦”愿景实现的关键。“新哈萨克斯坦”愿景是对哈萨克斯坦以往国家愿景的继承与发展,致力于在政治、经济和社会等各领域实现系统性变革,标志着哈萨克斯坦在全面实现国家现代化道路上迈出了重要步伐。在共有目标设定方面,新愿景旨在以渐进方式实现国家治理现代化,促进经济包容性增长,构建一个更加公平、正义和包容的社会。在国家身份构建方面,基于自我认知构建公平公正的国家身份和基于与“他者”互动构建中等强国身份,为实现“新哈萨克斯坦”愿景提供了重要动力。从实施路径及其效果来看,“新哈萨克斯坦”愿景提出以来,在政治、经济、社会、司法改革和国家身份构建等方面取得了初步成效。不过,新愿景的建设不可能一蹴而就,是一个长期而深刻的现代化进程。由于可能出现的民众愿景疲劳、愿景实施效果不明显及愿景实现判断标准的模糊性等问题,“新哈萨克斯坦”愿景的前景面临较大的不确定性。Through the lens of aspirational politics,this study examines Kazakhstan's national vision following the“January Events”of 2022,when President Tokayev introduced the concept of“New Kazakhstan.”This vision operates through three interconnected mechanisms:establishing shared objectives,fostering collective identity,and mobilizing coordinated action.The“New Kazakhstan”vision builds upon previous national initiatives while advocating comprehensive systemic reforms across political,economic,and social domains,marking a significant advance in Kazakhstan's modernization trajectory.The vision's shared objectives encompass progressive governance modernization,inclusive economic development,and the creation of an equitable society.The identity construction component emphasizes both domestic self-recognition as a fair and just state and international positioning as a middle power,providing crucial momentum for the vision's realization.Initial implementation efforts have yielded preliminary results in political,economic,social,and judicial reforms,alongside advances in national identity formation.However,the vision faces significant challenges,including potential public fatigue,limited tangible outcomes,and imprecise success metrics,introducing considerable uncertainty into its future development.

关 键 词：愿景政治 哈萨克斯坦 中等强国 国家治理 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]