俄罗斯在上海合作组织贸易网络中的地位变化及中国的应对之策  

Russia's Evolving Position in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Trade Network:Analysis and Strategic Implications for China

作　　者：郭辉 赵慧杰 李鸿飞 李佳程 Guo Hui;Zhao Huijie;Li Hongfei;Li Jiacheng(the Business School of Xinjiang Normal University;Ningxia Normal University;Hangzhou Nobel Ceramics Co.,LTD.)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学商学院,新疆830017 [2]宁夏师范学院,宁夏756000 [3]杭州诺贝尔陶瓷有限公司,杭州311199

出　　处：《区域国别学刊》2025年第1期111-133,159,160,共25页COUNTRY AND AREA STUDIES

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“中国在中亚拓展境外经贸合作区与中亚国家经济特区互动发展研究”(项目编号:20BGJ043);2022年新疆自然科学基金面上项目“丝绸之路经济带核心区与中亚五国深化经贸合作的提升路径研究”(项目编号:2022D01A205);2024年新时代党的治疆方略理论与实践课题“新疆边境地区打造铸牢中华民族共同体意识模范带实践研究”(项目编号:2024ZJFLY17)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：上海合作组织在维护地区安全与反对三股势力上发挥了重要作用,但在经贸领域依然存在短板:上海合作组织成员国之间双边经贸合作远多于多边合作,其中,俄罗斯平均每年约有四分之一的商品来源于上海合作组织,五分之一的商品出口到上海合作组织。显然,上海合作组织是俄罗斯对外贸易的重要平台。以往学术界对俄罗斯在上海合作组织贸易网络中的地位变迁,以及俄罗斯与上海合作组织其他国家贸易联系的研究相对薄弱。因此,本文运用社会网络分析法,对上海合作组织进行贸易网络结构分析,发现以下问题:上海合作组织贸易网络整体联系日益紧密,形成了以中、俄为核心的“核心—边缘”结构;俄罗斯进出口贸易的权重从第一位下降至第二位,但其依然位于上海合作组织贸易网络中的核心地位,具有“领头羊”和“中心行动者”的角色;在上海合作组织内,俄罗斯与中国、印度和巴基斯坦贸易联系松散,与中亚国家、白俄罗斯的贸易联系紧密。上海合作组织贸易网络分化明显,中国应考虑分层次推进经贸合作,积极灵活推动双边、“小多边”、“次区域”等形式的合作,充分调动有意愿参与合作国家的积极性,提高多边经济合作效率。While the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO)has effectively addressed regional security concerns and counter-terrorism efforts,its economic integration remains predominantly bilateral rather than multilateral.Russia's trade relationship with the SCO is particularly significant,with approximately 25%of its imports originating from and 20%of its exports destined for SCO member states,making the organization a crucial platform for Russian foreign trade.This study employs social network analysis to examine the evolving structure of SCO trade relationships and Russia's changing position within this network.Findings indicate an increasingly interconnected SCO trade network characterized by a core-periphery structure,with China and Russia as central nodes.Although Russia's trade volume ranking has declined from first to second position,it maintains core status within the network,functioning as both a leader and central actor.However,the network exhibits clear segmentation:Russia maintains stronger trade relationships with Central Asian countries and Belarus while showing relatively weaker connections with China,India,and Pakistan.Based on these findings,this study recommends that China adopt a multi-tiered approach to economic cooperation,promoting bilateral,small-group multilateral,and sub-regional partnerships to enhance the effectiveness of multilateral economic collaboration within the SCO framework.

关 键 词：俄罗斯 上海合作组织 商品贸易网络 社会网络分析法 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易] F0613[经济管理—产业经济]