中国省域新质生产力分布动态演进及空间相关性分析  

Analysis on the Dynamic Evolution of Distribution and Spatial Correlation of China’s Provincial New Quality Productive Forces

作　　者：陶鹤 朱万里 TAO He;ZHU Wanli(School of Economics,Lanzhou Technology and Business College,Lanzhou 730101,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Circular Economy in Universities of Gansu Province,Lanzhou)

机构地区：[1]兰州工商学院经济学院,兰州730101 [2]甘肃省高校区域循环经济重点实验室,兰州730101

出　　处：《重庆科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期1-12,共12页Journal of Chongqing university of science and technology(social science edition)

基　　金：甘肃省高等学校创新基金项目“新发展理念引领甘肃省乡村振兴战略高质量推进的机制及路径研究”(2023B-398)。

摘　　要：党的二十届三中全会提出,健全因地制宜发展新质生产力体制机制。准确测度省域新质生产力水平,对于我国经济高质量发展具有重要意义。从劳动者、劳动对象和生产资料3个方面出发,构建新质生产力评价指标体系。基于2013—2022年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据,运用熵值法进行水平测算,采用核密度估计方法分析动态演进特征,进一步建立空间计量模型探析新质生产力收敛性。研究表明:新质生产力水平总体呈逐年上升趋势;省域新质生产力存在显著的空间相关性和集聚现象;省域新质生产力水平具有收敛特征,加入经济社会等一系列影响因素后,新质生产力将以更快的收敛速度实现相对均衡。The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to improve the system and mechanism for developing new quality productive forces in accordance with local conditions.Accurate measurement of the level of provincial new quality productive forces is of great significance for the high-quality development of China’s economy.From three aspects of laborers,labor objects and means of production,an evaluation index system for new quality productive forces is constructed.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions or municipalities directly under the central government)in China from 2013 to 2022,an entropy method is used to calculate the level,a kernel density estimation method is used to analyze the dynamic evolution characteristics,and a spatial econometric model is further established to explore the convergence of new quality productive forces.The results show that the level of new quality productive forces is generally increasing year by year.There is significant spatial correlation and agglomeration phenomenon in provincial new quality productive forces.The level of provincial new quality productive forces is characteristic of convergence,and with a series of influencing factors such as economy and society considered,the new quality productive forces will achieve a relative equilibrium at a faster convergence rate.

关 键 词：新质生产力 水平测度 分布动态演进 空间相关性 空间收敛性 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济]