地方政府举债行为的经济效应分析——来自我国187个地级市的经验证据  

Analysis of the Economic Effects of Local Government Borrowing Behavior——Evidence from 187 prefecture level cities in China

作　　者：孟祥冉 达潭枫[1] Meng Xiangran;Da Tanfeng(School of Finance,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学金融学院,乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《北方经贸》2025年第1期48-54,共7页Northern Economy and Trade

基　　金：2020年度国家社会科学基金项目(20BJY239);2023年度新疆维吾尔自治区专家顾问团决策研究与咨询项目(Jz202304)。

摘　　要：中央金融工作会议指出,要建立防范化解地方债务风险长效机制,建立同高质量发展相适应的政府债务管理机制,那么对于政府发债行为是否提升了债务绩效,值得深入研究。本文运用2014-2021年我国187个地级市共3098支城投债数据样本,研究分析了地方政府举债行为的经济效应。实证分析结果显示,从全国来看,发行城投债有助于提升人均GDP增长率,即提升了债务绩效。但当发行规模超过某一节点时,反而对人均GDP增长产生负向作用,即城投债发行规模与债务绩效提升之间呈倒“U”型关系。异质性分析结果表明,发行城投债在中西部地区更容易形成债务违约。基于倒“U”型关系得出的结论,本文提出了防范城投债风险的政策建议。In recent years,spontaneous government debt has attracted much attention.As to whether government debt issuance has improved debt performance,this paper takes 3098 urban investment bonds from 187 prefecture-level cities in China from 2014 to 2021 as the research object,and explores the impact of government spontaneous debt on debt performance.The main conclusions are as follows:From the whole country,the issuance of CIBs will indeed improve the debt performance,but when the issuance scale exceeds a certain point,it will have a negative effect on economic growth,that is,the relationship between the issuance scale of CIBs and the improvement of debt performance is inverted“U”shape.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the issuance of CIBs is more likely to cause debt default in the central and western regions.Finally,based on the conclusion of the inverted“U”shaped relationship,this paper provides policy suggestions to prevent the risk of urban investment bonds.

关 键 词：城投债 债务绩效 债务风险 地方政策 

分 类 号：F20[经济管理—国民经济]