长三角城市群入境旅游发展效率及影响因素——基于超效率SBM-Malmquist-Tobit模型  

Study on the development efficiency and influencing factors of inbound tourism in Yangtze River Delta city cluster——based on Super-Efficient SBM-Malmquist-Tobit model

作　　者：沈欣浩 李跃军 Shen Xinhao;Li Yuejun(Zhejiang University of Science and Technology,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310023;Taizhou University,Taizhou Zhejiang 318000)

机构地区：[1]浙江科技大学经济与管理学院,浙江杭州310023 [2]台州学院商学院,浙江台州318000

出　　处：《北方经贸》2025年第1期130-139,共10页Northern Economy and Trade

基　　金：中华人民共和国文化和旅游部部级社科研究项目(22DY20);2024年湖南省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202410534095)。

摘　　要：长三角城市群在国际旅游市场中是我国最具有竞争力的区域,入境旅游发展效率是衡量区域旅游发展水平、旅游高质量发展的重要指标。现借助超效率SBM-Malmquist模型测算了长三角地区26个旅游城市2010-2017年的入境旅游发展效率及动态演化情况,对三省一市26个城市入境旅游发展的静态效率有效性对比与动态趋势作出了阐释,并利用面板Tobit模型对入境旅游发展效率的影响因素进行了探究。结果表明:多数年份长三角地区各旅游城市未处于入境旅游发展效率最佳状态,效率值总体偏低,三省一市效率差异比较明显,上海高于江苏与浙江,安徽最低;三省一市26个城市中扬州、杭州、苏州、上海处于领先地位,部分城市效率值下降较为突出;而入境旅游发展效率的空间差异及其演变受多种因素影响,经济发展状况、游客接待设施、对外开放程度显著正向影响了入境旅游发展效率,城市旅游目的地交通便利程度与入境旅游发展效率的相关性并不显著。The Yangtze River Delta city cluster is the most competitive region in China in the international tourism market.The efficiency of inbound tourism development is an important indicator to measure the level of regional tourism development and high-quality tourism development.This paper uses the super-efficiency SBM-Malmquist model to measure the development efficiency and changes of inbound tourism in 26 tourism cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2017,and explains the static efficiency effectiveness comparison and dynamic trend of the development of inbound tourism of 26 cities in three provinces and one city,and uses the panel Tobit model to explore the influencing factors of the development efficiency of inbound tourism.The results show that in most years,the tourism cities in the Yangtze River Delta are not in an effective state of inbound tourism development efficiency,and the efficiency value is generally low.The efficiency difference among three provinces and one city is obvious.Shanghai is higher than Jiangsu and Zhejiang,and Anhui is the lowest;Among 26 cities in three provinces and one city,Yangzhou,Hangzhou,Suzhou and Shanghai are in the leading position,and some cities'efficiency values have declined significantly;However,the spatial difference and evolution of inbound tourism development efficiency are affected by many factors.Economic development,tourist reception facilities,and the degree of opening up significantly and positively affect the efficiency of inbound tourism development.The correlation between the traffic convenience of urban tourism destinations and the efficiency of inbound tourism development is not significant.

关 键 词：长三角城市群 入境旅游发展效率 超效率SBM模型 Tobit模型 标准差椭圆 

分 类 号：F590.1[经济管理—旅游管理]