基于fsQCA的邮轮旅游市场渗透率影响因素  

Research on the Influencing Factors of Cruise Tourism Market Penetration Rate Based on Qualitative Comparative Analysis

作　　者：闵祥甜 张言庆 Min Xiangtian;Zhang Yanqing(School of Tourism and Geographical Science,Qingdao UniversityQingdao,Shandong 266071)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学旅游与地理科学学院,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《北方经贸》2025年第1期145-150,共6页Northern Economy and Trade

摘　　要：进入新世纪以来,全球邮轮旅游消费呈现快速增长趋势,但世界各国(地区)邮轮旅游渗透率差别显著。现从宏观视角出发,采用模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)方法,研究了邮轮旅游市场渗透率的影响因素组态及其路径。结果显示:邮轮旅游市场渗透率是多个因素协同作用的结果,政治稳定、收入水平、闲暇时间、对外开放以及人口老龄化均不能单独成为影响邮轮市场渗透率高低的必要条件;实现邮轮旅游高市场渗透率的组态路径有四条,其中政治稳定、收入水平以及对外开放对高邮轮市场渗透率具有普遍性影响,人口老龄化及闲暇时间的作用具有非对称性;导致邮轮旅游非高市场渗透率的组态路径有一条,即政治稳定、收入水平、对外开放和人口老龄化的缺失对邮轮市场渗透率具有重要约束作用,而闲暇时间的抑制作用不显著。Since entering the new century,global cruise tourism consumption has shown a rapid growth trend,but the penetration rate of cruise tourism varies significantly among countries(regions)in the world.From a macro perspective,the article adopts the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA)method to study the configuration and path of influencing factors of cruise tourism market penetration.The results show that:The market penetration rate of cruise tourism is the result of synergistic effect of multiple factors.Political stability,income level,leisure time,opening to the outside world and population aging cannot be the necessary conditions to affect the market penetration rate of cruise tourism alone;There are four configuration paths to achieve high market penetration of cruise tourism.Among them,political stability,income level and opening to the outside world have universal effects on high market penetration of cruise tourism,while the effects of population agi ng and leisure time are asymmetrical;There is one configuration path that leads to the non-high market penetration of cruise tourism.The lack of political stability,income level,opening to the outside world and population aging conditions have important constraints on the market penetration of cruise tourism,while leisure time has no significant inhibitory effect.

关 键 词：邮轮旅游 市场渗透率 旅游需求 定性比较分析 影响因素 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]