不同政策导向下中国电力行业的效率分析及政策效应模拟  

Efficiency Analysis and Policy Effect Simulation of China’s Power Industry under Different Policy Orientations

作　　者：彭文祥 雷玉桃 PENG Wenxiang;LEI Yutao(School of Economics and Finance,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学经济与金融学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《经济论坛》2025年第2期105-119,共15页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“碳交易市场驱动高耗能行业减排的长效机制与政策设计研究”(23BJY055);广州市哲学社科规划2023年度课题“广州统筹推进碳达峰碳中和与经济社会协同发展研究:基于制造业碳减排与高质量发展的视角”(2023GZYB10)。

摘　　要：电力行业既是中国能源高消耗行业,也是支撑我国经济发展的基础行业,涉及电力行业的改革不可避免会对国内造成影响。2021年,“十四五”规划提出广泛形成绿色生产生活方式的目标,强调绿色化的政策导向,同时电价正式实行市场化。基于此,文章通过构建包含电力厂商、生产厂商、家庭、政府的四部门数理模型,分析不同政策导向情境下,影响电力价格的关键因素,并进一步模拟仿真不同政策导向情景下,不同外生冲击对宏观经济的影响。研究发现:第一,促进经济产出政策导向时期的电价主要由工商企业生产决定,低于发电企业的边际生产成本,而在优化能源结构政策导向时期,通过电价由市场供需决定,真实反映电力企业发电的边际成本;第二,相对促进经济产出政策导向时期,优化能源结构政策导向时期,电价内生化能有效缓解外生冲击对宏观经济的影响;第三,优化能源结构政策导向时期,在明确的能源结构目标下,煤炭供给冲击对宏观经济的影响要高于新能源供给冲击。最后,对优化能源结构政策导向下中国电力行业发展提供决策参考。The electric power industry is not only an industry with high energy consumption in China but also a basic industry supporting China’s economic development.The reform of the electric power industry will inevitably have an impact on China.In 2021,China;s 14th Five-Year Plan proposed the goal of extensively forming a green production and life style,emphasizing the policy orientation of being green,and the formal marketization of electricity prices.Based on this,this paper analyzes the key factors affecting electricity prices by constructing mathematical models of the four sectors of the power industry,producers,households,and government,and further simulates the impact of different exogenous shocks on the macroeconomy under different policy-oriented scenarios.The results show that first,the electricity price in the policy-oriented period of promoting economic output is mainly determined by the production of industrial and commercial enterprises,which is lower than the marginal production cost of power generation enterprises,while in the policy-oriented period of optimizing energy structure,the electricity price is determined by market supply and demand,which truly reflects the marginal cost of power generation of power enterprises;second,compared with the policy-oriented period of promoting economic output,in the policy-oriented period of optimizing energy structure,the endogenous pricing can effectively alleviate the impact of external shocks on the macro-economy;third,in the policy-oriented period of optimizing energy structure,the impact of coal supply shock on the macro-economy is higher than that of new energy supply shock in the goal of specific energy structure.Finally,the paper provides some policy suggestions for the development of China’s power industry under the policy orientation of optimizing energy structure.

关 键 词：电力价格 DSGE 政策导向 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学] F420