沙芦草的分布及潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of potentially suitable areas for Agropyron mongolicum to enhance its distribution

作　　者：田丛嫣 王文强 杨博[1] 黄文广 梁咏亮 杨君珑 李小伟[1] TIAN Cong-yan;WANG Wen-qiang;YANG Bo;HUANG Wen-guang;LIANG Yong-iang;YANG Jun-ong;LI Xiao-wei(College of Forestry and Prataculture,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China;Ningxia Grassland Workstation,Yinchuan 750002,China;Ningxia Helan Mountain National Nature Reserve Administration,Yinchuan 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学林业与草业学院,宁夏银川750021 [2]宁夏回族自治区草原工作站,宁夏银川750002 [3]宁夏贺兰山国家级自然保护区管理局,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《草业学报》2025年第2期27-40,共14页Acta Prataculturae Sinica

基　　金：宁夏高等学校一流学科建设(草学学科)项目(NXYLXK2017A01);宁夏草原监测项目(2023);贺兰山植被群落生物量与草食兽数量的关系研究项目(2022);贺兰山东麓珍稀濒危植物斑子麻黄保护生物学研究项目(2022)资助。

摘　　要：沙芦草是我国二级重点保护植物,具有极强的耐旱性和适应性,在荒漠草地植被恢复和小麦遗传育种方面有重要价值。沙芦草对环境变化敏感,探究沙芦草栖息地的适宜特征,预测不同气候情境下沙芦草的潜在适生区,对保护沙芦草有重要指导意义。本研究基于119条有效分布记录和39个自然环境变量,利用最大熵模型和ArcGIS软件对自然环境下沙芦草当前和未来两种不同气候情境(SSP1-2.6和SSP5-5.8)的适生区进行预测。结果显示最湿月降水量、气温季节性变动系数和土壤酸碱度是影响沙芦草分布的主导自然因子。当前沙芦草的适生区主要集中在中国北部干旱地带,高适生区在内蒙古、陕西和宁夏的交界地带;在未来两种气候情境下,沙芦草的栖息地均有不同程度的西移。在未来气候条件下,沙芦草潜在分布区的总体分布格局与现在相似,但适生等级变化幅度大,高适生区在未来气候条件下有向北迁移聚集的趋势,主要集中分布在内蒙古中部地区。因此,对沙芦草的保护应该着眼于当前时期沙芦草群落集中的地区,并关注内蒙古中部地区的沙芦草潜在栖息地。Agropyron mongolicum,a plant under second-level key protection in China,posess strong drought resistance and adaptability.Hence,this species has significant value for the restoration of desert grassland vegetation and as a genetic resource for wheat(Triticum aestivum)breeding.Because A.mongolicum is sensitive to changes in environmental factors,it is important to identify its optimal habitat conditions to forecast its potential distribution under various climate scenarios;such information will provide crucial guidance for its conservation.In this study,a maximum entropy model was constructed using 119 accurate distribution records and data for 39 environmental variables.The model,which was implemented in ArcGIS software,was used to predict the current and future suitable growth areas for A.mongolicum under two different climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-5.8).The results show that precipitation of wettest month,seasonal variation coefficient of temperature,and soil pH are the primary natural factors influencing the distribution of A.mongolicum.At present,suitable growth areas for A.mongolicum are predominantly in northern China’s arid zones,with large populations distributed along the borders of Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,and Ningxia.Under both projected climate scenarios,the suitable habitat for A.mongolicum is expected to shift westward to varying extents.Under future climate change scenarios,the overall distribution pattern of A.mongolicum’s potential growth areas will resemble the current one,but there will be substantial changes in suitability for A.mongolicum growth.Highly suitable areas for A.mongolicum are projected to migrate northward under these future climate scenarios,primarily to central Inner Mongolia.Consequently,conservation efforts for A.mongolicum should concentrate on areas which currently have dense communities and pay attention to potential future habitats in central Inner Mongolia.

关 键 词：沙芦草 最大熵模型 ArcGIS软件 

分 类 号：S543.9[农业科学—作物学]