新一代人工智能驱动公共安全风险研判:价值向度、实践逻辑与路径选择  

Next-Generation AI-Enabled Public Safety Risk Assessment:Value Dimensions,Practical Logic,and Path Choices

作　　者：邹昀瑾 牛建华 ZOU Yunjin;NIU Jianhua(School of Public Policy&Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Marxism,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 [2]北京大学马克思主义学院,北京100871

出　　处：《西安财经大学学报》2025年第1期72-83,共12页Journal of Xi’an University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：中国科协科技智库青年人才计划(XMSB20240710019);北京市科学技术委员会、北京市科技战略决策咨询委员会项目(Z241100009224012);北京市科学技术委员会、北京市科技战略决策咨询委员会项目(Z231100007323001);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72404163);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD630002);中国博士后科学基金面上资助(2023M741906)。

摘　　要：公共安全风险研判的科学性和准确性直接关系到社会治理的效能。新一代人工智能作为发展新质生产力的重要引擎,已成为公共安全风险研判的重要工具。当前,城市公共安全风险研判存在科技短板,新一代人工智能驱动公共安全风险研判的实质是其在公共安全领域理论和实践的融合转型,通过剖析城市大规模集聚活动、城市违法犯罪、城市轨道交通安全和城市极端天气四个典型案例的创新实践,探索具有中国特色的“集中化处理、工具性识别、专业化调试、常态化参与”公共安全风险研判新模式,创新城市公共安全治理思路,以更好地回应公共安全风险敏捷研判需求。The scientific accuracy of public safety risk assessment is directly related to the effectiveness of social governance.As an important engine for developing new quality productive forces,next-generation artificial intelligence has become a vital tool for public safety risk assessment.Currently,urban public safety risk assessments face technological shortcomings.The essence of using next-generation artificial intelligence to drive public safety risk assessments lies in the integration and transformation of theory and practice in the public safety sector.By analyzing innovative practices in four typical cases-large-scale urban events,urban crime,urban rail transit,and extreme urban weather-this study explores a new model of public safety risk assessment characterized by“centralized processing,instrumental recognition,specialized adjustment,and normalized participation.”This model innovates urban public safety governance strategies to better meet the demands for agile risk assessment in public safety.

关 键 词：新一代人工智能 公共安全 风险研判 城市应急管理 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] D630.8[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]