2025年中国经济增长速度预测分析与政策建议  

Forecast of China’s economic growth rate in 2025 and policy suggestions

作　　者：陈锡康[1] 杨翠红[1,5] 祝坤福 王会娟 李鑫茹[4] 赵宇 CHEN Xikang;YANG Cuihong;ZHU Kunfu;WANG Huijuan;LI Xinru;ZHAO Yu(Center for Forecasting Science,Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Statistics and Mathematics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院预测科学研究中心,北京100190 [2]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872 [3]中央财经大学统计与数学学院,北京100081 [4]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070 [5]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2025年第1期140-148,共9页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会基础科学中心项目(71988101)。

摘　　要：2024年中国经济运行稳中有进,经济增速保持较好水平。文章通过回顾2024年中国经济状况并分析下一阶段国内外形势,使用系统综合因素预测法对2025年经济增速进行预测。结果表明:2025年中国经济将保持平稳运行,预计增速达到4.8%左右;如果各项促进经济发展的增量政策措施能有效落地且取得成效,2025年经济增速有望达到5%左右。基于当前经济状况,在强化国内经济循环、提升国内产业的生产效率、挖掘内需潜力、促进资本市场、科技医疗教育、青年人就业和预期管理等方面提出了具体建议。In 2024,China’s economy has shown steady progress,maintaining a relatively high growth rate.This study reviews the economic performance of China in 2024 and analyzes the domestic and international conditions for the next period.Using a systembased comprehensive factor prediction method,the study forecasts the economic growth rate for 2025,which indicates that China’s economy is expected to maintain stable operation,with a growth rate of around 4.8%,and is expected to reach around 5%if the package of incremental policies will be effectively implemented and boost the market.Based on the current economic situation,this study provides specific policy suggestions regarding strengthening the domestic economic cycle,enhancing the production efficiency,promoting the potential of domestic demand,and promoting development in key areas such as the capital market,science and technology,medical care,education,and youth employment.

关 键 词：经济预测 经济形势分析 国内生产总值 政策建议 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]