Will fire-smart landscape management buffer the effects of climate and land-use changes on fire regimes?  

作　　者：Ângelo Sil João C.Azevedo Paulo M.Fernandes João P.Honrado 

机构地区：[1]CIBIO,Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos,InBIO Laboratório Associado,Campus de Vairão,Universidade do Porto,4485-661 Vairão,Portugal [2]BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics,Biodiversity and Land Planning,CIBIO,Campus de Vairão,4485-661 Vairão,Portugal [3]Departamento de Biologia,Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto,Rua do Campo Alegre,S/N,Edifício FC4,4169-007 Porto,Portugal [4]CITAB-Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Biológicas,Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro,5001-801 Vila Real,Portugal [5]CIMO-Centro de Investigação de Montanha,Instituto Politécnico de Bragança,Campus de Santa Apolónia,5300-253 Bragança,Portugal [6]SusTEC-Laboratório Associado Para a Sustentabilidade e Tecnologia em Regiões de Montanha,Instituto Politécnico de Bragança,Campus de Santa Apolónia,5300-253 Bragança,Portugal

出　　处：《Ecological Processes》2024年第3期210-229,共20页生态过程(英文)

摘　　要：Background Long-term farmland abandonment has increased fuel build-up in many Euro-Mediterranean mountainous regions. The high fuel hazard in these landscapes, combined with ongoing climate change, is increasing the frequency of extreme wildfires, thus altering contemporary fire regimes. Mitigating the loss of the landscape's capacity to regulate large and intense fires is crucial to prevent future harmful effects of fires. As such, effective strategies to manage these fire-prone landscapes are needed. Yet, further understanding of their performance under global change scenarios is required. This study assessed the effects of fire-smart management strategies on future landscape dynamics, fire regulation capacity(FRC), and fire regime in a Mediterranean fire-prone mountainous landscape in Portugal(30,650 ha) undergoing long-term land abandonment and climate change scenarios. For that, we applied the LANDIS-II model under climate change scenarios(RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and long-term farmland abandonment(2020–2050) according to three fire-smart management strategies focused on fire prevention compared with a business-asusual(BAU) strategy based on fire suppression.Results Future fire activity and land dynamics resulted in changes that fostered landscape heterogeneity and fragmentation and favoured fire-adapted forests and agroforestry systems while decreasing the dominance of shrublands and croplands. FRC decreased over time, particularly under RCP 8.5 and the BAU strategy. In turn, fire-smart strategies better prevented large and intense fires than the BAU strategy, but their effectiveness decreased under RCP 8.5. The loss of FRC resulted in increased burned area and fire frequency, which predicts a shift from contemporary fire regimes but more markedly under RCP 8.5 and in the BAU strategy.Conclusions Fire-smart strategies outperformed BAU in averting current fire regime intensification. Merging forestand silvopasture-based management is the most promising approach in taming the effects of climate and farmland abandon

关 键 词：Fire management Global change LANDIS-II Landscape dynamics Mediterranean mountains Wildfre 

分 类 号：TU9[建筑科学]