基于最大熵模型的黑龙江省全沟硬蜱潜在适生区分布研究  

Distribution of potential suitable habitats for Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province based on the maximum entropy model

作　　者：王玥 张雅明[2] 袁爽[3] 丁杨[4] 关欣[5] 高胜男[6] 宋广萍 唐磊 Wang Yue;Zhang Yaming;Yuan Shuang;Ding Yang;Guan Xin;Gao Shengnan;Song Guangping;Tang Lei(Department of General Affairs,Harbin Veterans Service Center,Harbin 150036,China;Institute for Disinfection and Vector Surveillance and Control,Harbin Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Harbin 150026,China;Institute of Prevention and Control of Endemic Diseases and Vector Organisms,Heilongjiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Harbin 150036,China;Institute of Physical and Chemical Laboratory,Harbin Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Harbin 150026,China;Institute for Information Management,Harbin Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Harbin 150026,China;Department of Immunization Program,Nangang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Harbin 150000,China;Clinical Laboratory,Suifenhe Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Suifenhe 157399,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨市退役军人服务中心综合部,哈尔滨150036 [2]哈尔滨市疾病预防控制中心消毒与病媒监测控制所,哈尔滨150026 [3]黑龙江省疾病预防控制中心地方病与病媒生物预防控制所,哈尔滨150036 [4]哈尔滨市疾病预防控制中心理化检验科,哈尔滨150026 [5]哈尔滨市疾病预防控制中心信息管理所,哈尔滨150026 [6]黑龙江省哈尔滨市南岗区疾病预防控制中心免疫规划科,哈尔滨150000 [7]黑龙江省绥芬河市疾病预防控制中心检验科,绥芬河157399

出　　处：《中华地方病学杂志》2024年第11期885-890,共6页Chinese Journal of Endemiology

基　　金：黑龙江省卫生健康委员会科研课题(20231212070498)

摘　　要：目的探讨黑龙江省全沟硬蜱在不同气候时期的潜在适生区分布情况。方法通过文献检索和现场生态学调查两种途径,收集1980-2023年黑龙江省全沟硬蜱地理位置数据。自WorldClim网站、资源环境科学数据平台采集环境因子变量,采用SDMtune、ENMTools程序包和最大熵(maximum entropy,MaxEnt)模型相结合的方法,预测不同气候时期黑龙江省全沟硬蜱潜在适生区区域并确定其主导环境因子。其中,历史气候时期数据时间范围为1970-2000年;未来气候时期数据(2021-2040、2041-2060年)选用北京气候中心气候系统模式中共享社会经济路径(shared socioeconomic pathways,SSP)的低强迫情景(SSP126),以模拟全球气候变暖对黑龙江省全沟硬蜱潜在适生区分布的影响。结果共获得83个黑龙江省全沟硬蜱地理分布点数据。经筛选,10个环境因子纳入MaxEnt模型。其中,年降水量、年均温度、植被类型的累计贡献率百分比为67.3%。与历史气候时期相比,至2041-2060年黑龙江省全沟硬蜱潜在适生区总面积由29.81×10^(4) km^(2)增至32.24×10^(4) km^(2),适生区质心移至北纬47.75°、东经128.66°,向西北方向偏移126.07°,迁移距离为45.83 km。结论随着全球气候变暖,黑龙江省全沟硬蜱潜在适生区总面积增加,总体呈现向西北方向迁移的趋势。Objective To investigate the distribution of potential suitable habitats for Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province during different climatic periods.Methods The geographical location data of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2023 were collected through literature search and field ecological investigation.The environmental factor variables were downloaded from the WorldClim website and the Resource and Environmental Science and Data Platform.A combination of SDMtune,ENMTools packages,and the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model were used to predict the potential habitats of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province during different climatic periods and determine its dominant environmental factors.Among them,the time range of historical climatic period data was 1970-2000.The future climatic period data(2021-2040,2041-2060)were selected as the low forcing scenario(SSP126 scenario)of the shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP)in the Beijing Climate Center-Climate System Model version 2-Medium Resolution,to simulate the impact of global warming on the distribution of potential habitats for Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province.Results A total of 83 geographical distribution sites of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province were obtained.After screening,10 environmental factors were included in the MaxEnt model.Among them,the cumulative contribution percentage of annual precipitation,average annual temperature,and vegetation type was 67.3%.Compared with historical climatic period,the total potential habitats of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province increased from 29.81×10^(4)km^(2)to 32.24×10^(4)km^(2)in 2041-2060.The center of potential habitats moved to 47.75°N,and 128.66°E,with a northwest offset of 126.07°and a migration distance of 45.83 km.Conclusion With global climate warming,the total potential habitats of Ixodes persulcatus in Heilongjiang Province has increased,showing an overall trend of migration to the northwest.

关 键 词：全沟硬蜱 最大熵模型 环境因子 适生区 

分 类 号：R384.4[医药卫生—医学寄生虫学]