山东半岛城市群经济韧性动态水平与影响机制差异  

Dynamic Level and Influencing Mechanism of Economic Resilience in Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：李连刚 孙艺嘉 郭晖 孙桂婷 李文佳 LI Liangang;SUN Yijia;GUO Hui;SUN Guiting;LI Wenjia(College of Geography and Environment,Shandong Normal University,Collaborative Innovation Center of Human-Nature and Green Development in Universities of Shandong,Jinan 250358,China;Shandong Experimental High School,Jinan 250358,China)

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学地理与环境学院/山东省高校人地协调与绿色发展协同创新中心,济南250358 [2]山东省实验中学,济南250358

出　　处：《华南地理学报》2024年第3期63-74,共12页South China Geographical Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42101161);山东省人文社会科学课题(2021-YYGL-29);山东省社会科学规划研究专项(22CLYJ29);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2024QD033)

摘　　要：区域经济韧性是解释区域经济系统在不确定冲击环境下维持经济稳定、转型恢复发展的关键。文章以山东半岛城市群这一复杂系统为研究对象,通过构建抵抗力指数和恢复力指数对2007—2022年城市群面对不同属性冲击情境下的区域经济韧性进行动态测度,借助时空地理加权回归模型探究了区域经济韧性影响因素的时空异质性。结果发现:(1)山东半岛城市群应对不同属性冲击下的经济韧性特征差异较大,应对金融危机的经济韧性能力较低,城市群更易遭受此类外部冲击的影响,而抵抗疫情冲击的能力较高。(2)金融危机情境下,山东半岛城市群低抵抗力城市呈现出逐年增加并连片分布特征,区域经济系统路径更新或突破发展能力较差。疫情冲击情境下,山东半岛城市群抵抗力呈现区域差异特征,济南和青岛两个中心城市及其周边区域呈现出高抵抗力集聚分布特征,东部沿海地区应对冲击的表现更好。(3)结构性要素和能动性要素的作用具有时空异质性,而且在不同属性特征冲击下的作用差异较为明显,尤其是在疫情冲击情境下,能动性要素的作用更为重要。即使在同一冲击情境下的不同阶段,要素的作用也存在显著差异。Regional economic resilience is the key to explaining the regional economic system’s economic stability,transformation,and recovery in the uncertain shock environments.The paper takes the complex system of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration as the research object and measures regional economic resilience in the face of different attribute shocks in 2007-2022 by constructing the resistance and recoverability index.The spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the influencing factors of regional economic resilience was explored with the help of geographically and temporally weighted autoregressive model.The results show that:(1)The economic resilience characteristics of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration in response to different attribute shocks vary greatly,the economic resilience ability to cope with the financial crisis is lower,and the urban agglomeration is more vulnerable to such shocks,while the ability to resist pandemic shock is higher;(2)Under the financial crisis,the number of low-resistance cities in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration has increased and showing the characteristics of continuous distribution in space.The ability of regional economic system to update or breakthrough the path of development is poor.Under the pandemic shock,the resistance of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration shows regional differences.Jinan and Qingdao and their surrounding areas show the characteristics of high resistance concentration distribution,and the eastern coastal areas respond better to the shock;(3)The roles of structural and agency-based factors have spatiotemporal heterogeneity,and the effects are obviously different under different attribute shocks.Especially under the pandemic shock,the role of agency-based factors is more important.Even in different stages of the same shock situation,the effects of factors are significantly different.

关 键 词：区域经济韧性 冲击情境 时空特征 异质性 山东半岛城市群 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]