长三角地区经济韧性测度与时空演化特征分析  

Economic Resilience and Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of the Yangtze River Delta Region

作　　者：谭俊涛 王子暄 唐枫霞 TAN Juntao;WANG Zixuan;TANG Fengxia(School of Geography,Geomatics and Planning,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou 221116,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院,徐州221116

出　　处：《华南地理学报》2024年第3期38-47,共10页South China Geographical Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42201177);教育部人文社会科学基金项目(20YJCZH143);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2020SJA1024);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2024SJZD025);江苏师范大学研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(2024XKT0151,2024XKT0082)

摘　　要：在全球化和地缘政治日益复杂的背景下,全球经济系统面临前所未有的挑战。长三角地区作为我国经济发展的重要增长极,其经济韧性的强弱直接关系到我国经济的整体稳定性和增长潜力。文章采用多指标核心变量法测度了长三角地区的经济韧性,从抵抗、恢复和重构3个过程维度分析其动态演化特征,并通过Dagum基尼系数、莫兰指数等方法,揭示了其空间演化特征。研究表明:(1)长三角地区整体经济发展水平较高,经历了上升、下降、波动再上升的变化趋势,区域经济发展差异增大;(2)省内经济韧性水平差距由低到高依次为:浙江省、江苏省、安徽省,整体表现出一定空间集聚趋势,省域差异明显;(3)长三角地区经济韧性水平表现出高—低集聚和低—低集聚类型前期占主导地位,后期逐渐减少的特征,低—高集聚和高—高集聚类型分布较少;(4)长三角地区近15年的经济韧性水平持续波动增长,在抵抗阶段和重构阶段均展现了较强的韧性能力。In the complex context of globalization and geopolitics,the global economic system is facing unprecedented challenges.The Yangtze River Delta region,as an important growth pole of China's economic development,has a strong or weak economic resilience that directly relates to the overall stability and growth potential of China's economy.This paper measures the economic resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration using the multi-indicator core variable method,analyzes its dynamic evolution characteristics from the three process dimensions of resistance,recoverability,and renewal,and reveals its spatial evolution characteristics through the Dagum Gini coefficient,Moran's I,and other methods.The research shows:(1)The overall economic development level of the Yangtze River Delta region is relatively high,having experienced a trend of rising,falling,fluctuating,and then rising again,with increasing regional economic development disparities;(2)The differences in economic resilience levels within the provinces are Zhejiang Province<Jiangsu Province<Anhui Province,showing a certain spatial agglomeration trend with significant provincial differences;(3)The economic resilience levels in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration initially show a dominant pattern of high-low agglomeration and low-low agglomeration,which gradually decreases over time,with low-high agglomeration and high-high agglomeration types being less distributed;(4)The economic resilience level in the Yangtze River Delta region has been fluctuating and growing over the past fifteen years,demonstrating strong resilience capabilities in both the resistance and renewal phases.

关 键 词：韧性 区域经济韧性 时空演化 长三角地区 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]