确保大国战略稳定:美苏《防止海上事故协定》的签署、执行与启示  

Ensuring Major Power Strategic Stability:Signing,Implementation and Implications of US-Soviet Agreement on Prevention of Incidents on and over High Seas

作　　者：忻怿 Xin Yi(School of History and Culture,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710038)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学历史文化学院,陕西西安710038

出　　处：《军事历史研究》2024年第4期103-114,共12页Military History Research

基　　金：2022年教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“黑海通史研究”(22JDZ037);2021年国家社会科学基金青年项目“美国对华安全战略研究(1969—2001)”(21CSS002);2023年中央高校基本业务经费资助项目(23ZYYB018)

摘　　要：冷战开始后,美苏舰机因相互抵近而频繁发生海空摩擦事件,不仅造成大量人员伤亡,更易引发战略误判。为降低冷战烈度、维护战略稳定、构筑“缓和”所需的国际规范,美苏于1972年签订《防止海上事故协定》。作为美苏第二次战略“缓和”的一项重要成果,该协定有效管控了美苏海空接触行为,亦成为后续类似机制如多国《海上意外相遇规则》之滥觞,为多边海上接触规范、互信机制及危机处置奠定了基础。《防止海上事故协定》虽然显著降低了美苏海空摩擦事件的发生频率,但美国仍通过“常春藤响铃行动”等方式维持对苏海空秘密抵近侦察活动,违背协定规定和精神,凸显美国对于双边和多边军控及战略稳定机制“合则用不合则弃”的两面性与现实主义本质。在当今大国战略竞争日趋激烈的背景下,研究冷战时期美苏两国以《防止海上事故协定》为代表的战略稳定相关举措、经验及启示,具有重要现实意义。After the beginning of the Cold War,maritime and aerial frictions between US and Soviet forces occurred frequently due to close proximity of ships and aircraft,resulting not only in significant casualties but also in risk of strategic miscalculations between the two powers.In 1972,the United States and the Soviet Union signed Agreement on the Prevention of Incidents on and over the High Seas in order to reduce Cold War tensions,to maintain strategic stability,and to build the international norms needed for“détente”.This agreement was a key achievement of the second phase of US-Soviet détente and it effectively regulated their maritime and aerial interactions.It also served as a precursor to subsequent similar mechanisms such as the multilateral Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea(CUES),laying the groundwork for multilateral maritime contact norms,trust-building mechanisms and crisis management.Although the agreement significantly reduced the frequency of US-Soviet maritime and aerial frictions,the US continued to conduct secret reconnaissance operations like“Operation Ivy Bells”near Soviet waters and airspace,violating both the provisions and spirit of the agreement.This reflected US's dual and realistic approach to bilateral and multilateral arms control and strategic stability mechanisms,adopting them when advanta-geous and disregarding them otherwise.In today's context of intensifying strategic competition among major powers,it holds significant practical value to study the Cold War-era US-Soviet strategic stability measures,experience and enlightenment,as represented by the Agreement on the Prevention of Incidents on and over the High Seas.

关 键 词：冷战 缓和战略 《防止海上事故协定》 尼克松政府 美苏关系 

分 类 号：K15[历史地理—历史学] E19[历史地理—世界史]