低等级道路交通事故严重程度影响因素分析  

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Severity of Low-Grade Roads Traffic Accidents

作　　者：司贺兵 赵丹 SI Hebing;ZHAO Dan(School of Traffic Management,People's Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学交通管理学院,北京100038

出　　处：《中国人民公安大学学报(自然科学版)》2024年第3期42-48,共7页Journal of People’s Public Security University of China(Science and Technology)

基　　金：中国人民公安大学基本科研业务费项目(2022SJKJS06)

摘　　要：低等级道路广泛分布于农村区域中,研究其交通安全问题对农村区域交通安全具有重要意义。为了改善低等级道路交通安全问题,收集了某市2016—2021年低等级道路事故数据,采用混合随机森林模型与多项Logit模型的方法对事故严重程度影响因素进行分析。首先,运用随机森林模型对各自变量相对重要性排序,依据袋外误差率选取排在前8位的变量作为影响事故严重程度的关键因素;选取排在前8位的变量作为影响事故严重程度的关键因素;其次,采用多项Logit模型,分析关键因素中对事故严重程度具有显著影响的因素并解释其影响程度。结果表明,混合模型能够分析并解释影响因素与事故的严重程度关系,能见度降低会使严重事故的概率显著增加,三枝分叉口、四枝分叉口、行人、非机动车、老年人与严重事故发生有显著影响关系。研究结果可为交通管理部门制定相应的事故预防政策和道路交通安全保护措施提供理论依据,提升低等级道路的交通安全水平。Low-grade roads are widely distributed in rural areas,and it is great significance to investigate their traffic safety issues for rural traffic safety.To improve the traffic safety conditions of low-grade roads,the data of low-graded road accidents in a city from 2016 to 2021 were collected,and the influencing factors of accident severity were analyzed by random forest and multinomial logit models.Firstly,the random forest model was used to rank the relative importance of each independent variable,and the top 8 variables were selected as the key factors affecting the severity of accidents.Secondly,the multinomial logit model was applied to identify the factors that significantly affect accident severity among the key ones and explain their impact trends.The results indicate that the combined model can analyze and explain the relationship between influencing factors and accidents severity.The decreasing visibility would significantly increase the probability of severe accidents.Factors such as three-way and four-way intersections,pedestrians,non-motorized vehicles,the elderly all have a significant impact on the occurrence of severe accidents.The results can provide theoretical basis for traffic management authorities to formulate corresponding accident prevention policies and road traffic safety protection measures and improve the safety levels of lower-grade roads.

关 键 词：低等级道路 农村交通安全 事故严重程度 随机森林 多项Logit模型 

分 类 号：D035.37[政治法律—政治学]