基于PSR模型及熵权法的城市公园韧性评估及影响分析——以上海市为例  

Assessment and Impact Analysis of Urban Parks Resilience Based on PSR Model and Entropy Weight Method——A Case Study of Shanghai

作　　者：辛慧 耿晓磊 厉成伟 张宇轩 王祥荣[1] XIN Hui;GENG Xiaolei;LI Chengwei;ZHANG Yuxuan;WANG Xiangrong(Department of Environmental Science and Engineering,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学环境科学与工程系,上海200433

出　　处：《复旦学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期64-79,共16页Journal of Fudan University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0502700)。

摘　　要：在全球气候变化背景下,城市公园应对极端气候事件和不确定干扰的能力在增强城市韧性中发挥着关键作用。本文应用压力状态响应(PSR)模型构建城市公园韧性评估指标体系,结合熵权法对上海市2015—2019年352个公园的韧性及影响因子进行了生态评估。指标体系由3个准则层和13个指标构成,用于研究极端高温灾害、热岛胁迫、空气污染、城市扩张、人为干扰及其他灾害对城市公园韧性的影响。研究结果表明:时间上,2015—2019年上海市公园韧性整体呈下降趋势,但城市公园内部的公园韧性差异不断缩小,中韧性公园在城市公园的比重有所增加;空间上,上海市城市公园韧性不均衡且存在极化现象,除徐汇区南部外,主城区公园韧性整体处于中低水平,浦东新区、松江区和青浦区公园韧性整体较高;此外,对城市公园韧性影响较大的因素分别是地表温度、叶面积指数和水面率。In the context of global climate change,the ability of urban parks to cope with extreme weather events and uncertain disturbances plays a key role in improving urban resilience.This paper applies the PSR model to construct an assessment index system for urban park resilience,and combines the entropy weight method to conduct an ecological assessment of the resilience and impact factors of 352 parks in Shanghai from 2015 to 2019.The indicator system consists of 3 standard layers and 13 indicators,which are used to cope with extreme high temperature disasters,heat island pressure,air pollution,urban expansion,human interference and other disasters.The research results show that the overall resilience of Shanghai parks showed a downward trend from 2015 to 2019.Putuo District,Hongkou District and Huangpu District have low overall resilience scores,while Pudong New Area,Songjiang District and Qingpu District have high overall resilience scores.The research results of this paper help to clarify the important direction of urban park resilience construction,and provide scientific basis for optimizing and improving urban park resilience.

关 键 词：压力状态响应模型 城市公园 韧性评估 熵权法 结构方程模型 

分 类 号：X820.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程]