中国南水北调沿线四大流域水资源利用效率水平差异及成因识别  

Differences in Water Use Efficiency Levels and Identification of Causes in Four Major River Basins along China's South-to-North Water Diversion Route

作　　者：李旭辉[1] 陈梦伟 严晗 LI Xuhui;CHEN Mengwei;YAN Han(School of Management Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu Anhui 233030,China;School of Antai Economics and Management,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200030

出　　处：《复旦学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期80-95,共16页Journal of Fudan University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(22BJY262)。

摘　　要：加强水资源的节约集约利用,推动全领域、全环节、全过程节水,是深入贯彻习近平生态文明思想、实施全面节约战略的重要举措。本文基于非期望产出的全局超效率EBM模型,实证测度了长江、黄河、淮河、海河四大流域水资源利用效率,并采用标准差椭圆、Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计和QAP方法剖析了四大流域水资源利用效率水平差异及其成因。研究发现:1)2003—2014年四大流域水资源利用效率水平呈稳定波动态势,自2014年南水北调工程全面供水后,四大流域水资源利用效率水平快速上升,且海河和淮河流域的追赶效应逐渐显现;在空间格局上,四大流域水资源利用效率均呈“东高西低,北高南低”空间分布格局,长江、黄河及淮河流域空间分布重心随时间推移仍逐渐向东南方向移动,而海河流域空间分布重心在东西方向演变较为平稳,南北方向空间非均衡进一步加剧;2)随着我国战略性工程南水北调工程规划有序展开及水利基础设施建设的深入推进,近年来四大流域水资源利用效率的空间非均衡性有所缓解;流域内差异和超变密度是四大流域整体空间非均衡性的主要来源,且长江流域的内部不均衡现象较为严峻;3)四大流域整体、黄河、淮河和海河流域水资源利用效率表现出“绝对差异扩大,极化现象加剧”的特征,长江流域则表现出“绝对差异缩小,极化现象缓解”的相反特征;4)经济发展和环境规制差异是四大流域整体水资源利用效率区域差异的主导因素,但各流域内部差异成因具有地区异质性。研究结果对于研判把握水资源长远供求趋势、区域分布、结构特征,统筹水资源空间均衡发展,提高水资源集约节约利用水平具有重要现实意义。Strengthening the conservation and intensive use of water resources and promoting water conservation in all fields,segments and processes is an important initiative to deeply implement Xi Jinping's thought on ecological civilisation and the comprehensive conservation strategy.Based on the global super-efficiency EBM model with non-expected output,this paper empirically measures the water use efficiency of the four major river basins of the Yangtze River,the Yellow River,the Huaihe River,and the Haihe River,and analyses the differences in the level of water use efficiency of the four major river basins and their causes using the standard deviation ellipse,Dagum's Gini coefficient,the Kernel density estimation,and the QAP method.The study found that:①The level of water use efficiency in the four major basins showed stable fluctuation from 2003 to 2014,and after the South-to-North Water Diversion Project supplied water in 2014,the level of water use efficiency in the four major basins increased rapidly,and the catching-up effect of the Haihe River and Huaihe River Basin was gradually apparent;In terms of spatial pattern,the water use efficiency of the four major basins showed the spatial distribution pattern of“high in the east and low in the west,high in the north and low in the south”,the centre of gravity of the spatial distribution of the Yangtze River,the Yellow River and the Huaihe River Basin is still gradually moving southeastward over time,while the centre of gravity of the spatial distribution of the Haihe River Basin evolves in the east-west direction in a relatively stable manner,and spatial imbalance in the north-south direction is further aggravated.②With the orderly development of China's strategic South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the in-depth promotion of water conservancy infrastructure construction,the spatial imbalance of water use efficiency in the four major basins has been alleviated in recent years;Intra-basin variations and hypervariable densities are the main sources of spa

关 键 词：南水北调 四大流域 水资源利用效率 Dagum基尼系数 Kernel密度估计 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源] F127[经济管理—世界经济]