东北三省作物种植区极端温度和降水事件的时空变化特征  

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Events in the Cropping Region across Northeast China

作　　者：李浩天 董美琦 赵锦[1] 唐捷 杨晓光[1] LI Hao-tian;DONG Mei-qi;ZHAO Jin;TANG Jie;YANG Xiao-guang(College of Resources and Environment,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;Shenyang Meteorological Bureau,Shenyang 110168)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]沈阳市气象局,沈阳110168

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2025年第2期145-156,共12页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFD1500600);国家自然科学基金项目(42205192)。

摘　　要：全球变暖导致极端天气气候事件的发生频率显著增加,中国以东北地区最为明显,区域粮食生产受到严重影响。本文基于历史时期(1981-2014年)地面气象观测资料和未来(2031-2060年)气候变化预测资料,选择与农业生产相关的4项极端温度指数和3项极端降水指数,系统分析东北三省作物种植区极端温度和降水事件的时空分布特征以及未来的变化趋势。结果表明:东北三省作物种植区内历史阶段低温日数(CD)下降、高温日数(HD)上升,但低温强度(CSI)和高温强度(HSI)均总体呈上升趋势;持续湿润日数(CWD)下降,持续干燥日数(CDD)上升,强降水日数(R20)下降;未来东北三省作物种植区气温整体将继续升高,持续湿润日数增加,持续干燥和强降水日数减少,降水变异性大、空间差异大且波动幅度均大于历史阶段,异常降水不确定性加强,尤以南部和东南部最为明显。Global warming has led to a significant increase in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events,especially in northeast China,which is bound to affect the grain output of the three northeastern provinces.Based on historical ground meteorological observation data(1981−2014)and future climate change prediction data(2031−2060),this paper systematically analyzed the spatial−temporal distribution characteristics and future occurrence trends of extreme temperature and precipitation events by defining four extreme temperature indices and three extreme precipitation indices related to crop production.The results showed that the number of low temperature days(CD)decreased,the number of high temperature days(HD),low temperature intensity(CSI)and high temperature intensity(HSI)increased,the number of continuous wet days(CWD)decreased,the number of continuous dry days(CDD)increased,the number of heavy precipitation days(R20)decreased,the number of extreme high temperature days increased significantly and the extreme maximum temperature was the same as the historical stage.The extreme minimum temperature is in a state of warming.In the future,the overall temperature in the crop growing areas of the three provinces in northeast China would continue to rise,the number of continuous wet days would increase,the number of continuous dry and heavy precipitation days would decrease,and the precipitation variability and spatial difference would be large and the fluctuation range would be greater than the historical stage,and the uncertainty of abnormal precipitation would be strengthened,showing a trend of warming and drying,especially in the south and southeast.The results can provide reference for agricultural production in Northeast China to cope with climate change.

关 键 词：东北三省 极端气候事件 气候变化 粮食作物 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]