两类融合降水实况分析产品在山西地区的评估与对比  

Evaluation and Comparison of Two Merged Precipitation Analysis Products in Shanxi Province

作　　者：李梦军[1] 董春卿[2] 李树文 刘晓洁 LI Mengjun;DONG Chunqing;LI Shuwen;LIU Xiaojie(Taiyuan Meteorological Bureau,Taiyuan 030082,China;Shanxi Meteorological Observatory,Taiyuan 030006,China;Taiyuan Jiancaoping Meteorological Bureau,Taiyuan 030023,China)

机构地区：[1]太原市气象局,山西太原030082 [2]山西省气象台,山西太原030006 [3]尖草坪区气象局,山西太原030023

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2025年第1期147-156,共10页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J019);山西省气象局揭榜挂帅科技项目(SXKJBGS202314);山西省气象局2021年青年基金项目(SXKQNTC20217155)。

摘　　要：利用2018—2020年山西省地面站点降水观测资料,从降水时空特征、分量级检验等方面对国家气象信息中心CMPAS多源降水融合系统中FAST、FRT两类产品开展适用性评估。结果表明:(1)两类产品能较好地描述山西地区日降水量特征,2018—2020年偏差减小60%以上。(2)汛期融合雷达数据后,FRT分析精度提升,主要体现在太行山南麓、吕梁山西麓和临运盆地,FRT同观测强降水契合度更高。(3)小时产品存在非汛期凌晨到午后日降水的低估和汛期降水峰值滞后、峰值偏弱的现象。(4)两类产品均存在降水频次正偏差主导的弱降水高估,以及降水强度负偏差主导的强降水低估。Based on observed precipitation data from Shanxi Province between 2018 and 2020,the applicability of the FAST and FRT merged precipitation products in the CMPAS multi-source precipitation fusion system of the National Meteorological Information Center was evaluated in terms of spatial-temporal characteristics and categorical verification.The results showed that:(1)Both products reflect the daily precipitation characteristics in Shanxi Province,with deviation reduced by more than 60%from 2018 to 2020.(2)After the fusion of radar data during the flood season,the accuracy of FRT improved,particularly in areas such as the southern foot of the Taihang Mountains,the western foot of the Lüliang Mountains,and the Lin-Yun Basin.Additionally,FRT exhibited a higher correlation with observed heavy precipitation.(3)The diurnal variation of precipitation showed that hourly products tend to underestimate precipitation from early morning to afternoon during non-flood seasons,and exhibit delayed and weaker peak values during flood seasons.(4)Both products tend to overestimate weak precipitation,primarily due to a positive frequency deviation,and underestimate heavy precipitation,mainly due to a negative intensity deviation.

关 键 词：降水 融合降水产品 精度评估 山西 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]