盘古气象大模型在东北地区适用性的初步评估  

Applicability Assessment of the Pangu Weather Forecast Model in Northeast China

作　　者：姚凯 朱晓彤 云天[1] 郝禹 孙悦 秦玉琳[1] YAO Kai;ZHU Xiaotong;YUN Tian;HAO Yu;SUN Yue;QIN Yuling(Jilin Meteorological Observatory,Changchun 130062,China;Jilin Institute of Meteorological Science,Changchun 130062,China;Jilin Key Laboratory of Changbai Mountain&Climate Change,Changchun 130062,China;Jilin Meteorological Information Network Center,Changchun 130062,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林省气象台,吉林长春130062 [2]吉林省气象科学研究所,吉林长春130062 [3]长白山气象与气候变化吉林省重点实验室,吉林长春130062 [4]吉林省气象信息网络中心,吉林长春130062

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2025年第1期157-164,共8页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局复盘专项(FPZJ2024-032,FPZJ2024-031);吉林省科技发展计划项目(20220203186SF);吉林省气象局技术发展专项(202304)。

摘　　要：通过对比检验分析欧洲中心全球中期预报模式(EC)驱动的盘古气象大模型产品与EC预报产品,初步评估了盘古气象大模型在东北地区2023年3—9月强降水、系统性大风、高温等高影响天气过程中的适用性,结果表明:(1)东北区域强降水过程中,500hPa高度场EC预报效果较好,850hPa湿度场盘古预报较佳。850hPa经纬向风速与温度预报方面,EC在短中期时效预报效果较好,盘古在长时效内误差较低。(2)对于系统性大风中的海平面气压、10m风向与风速预报,EC在120h时效以内有优势。(3)对于夏季高温预报,EC预报效果优于盘古。(4)同EC相比,盘古在极端性表现方面存在不足,强降水个例850hPa湿度与风速、系统性大风个例10m风速与高温个例35℃以上温度预报均偏弱。A preliminary assessment was conducted to evaluate the performance of the Pangu Weather Model,driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)model,compared to ECMWF forecast products in northeast China from March to September 2023.The analysis focused on intense precipitation,systematic strong winds,and high temperatures.The results indicate the following:For intense precipitation events in northeast China,the 500 hPa geopotential height field in the ECMWF forecast performs better,whereas the 850 hPa humidity field in the Pangu forecast demonstrates superior performance.Regarding forecasts for the 850 hPa wind field and temperature,ECMWF performs better in short-to medium-term forecasts,while Pangu exhibits lower errors in long-term forecasts.For systematic strong winds,ECMWF shows advantages within 120 forecast hours for sea-level pressure,10-meter wind direction,and wind speed.For summer high-temperature forecasts,ECMWF outperforms Pangu.In typical cases involving these weather phenomena,Pangu shows limitations in predicting extreme weather events.For intense precipitation,Pangu underestimates 850 hPa humidity and wind speed.Similarly,for systematic strong winds,Pangu’s 10-meter wind speed forecasts are weaker.Compared to ECMWF,Pangu's temperature forecasts for values above 35℃ are also less accurate in extreme temperature event.

关 键 词：盘古气象大模型 东北地区 适用性评估 高影响天气 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]