8套高分辨率降水资料在青藏高原干湿季适用性评估  

Applicability Assessment of Eight Sets of High-resolution Precipitation Data in the Dry and Wet Seasons of the Tibetan Plateau

作　　者：温婷婷 申红艳 冯晓莉 巨菲 WEN Tingting;SHEN Hongyan;FENG Xiaoli;JU Fei(Qinghai Climate Center,Xining 810001,China;Shaanxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Xi’an710014,China;Key Laboratory of Eco-Environment and Meteorology for Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateau,Shaanxi Meteorological Service,Xi’an710014,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省气候中心,青海西宁810001 [2]陕西省气象科学研究所,陕西西安710014 [3]陕西省气象局秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室,陕西西安710014

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2025年第1期165-173,共9页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：陕西省科技厅自然科学基础研究计划项目(2023-JC-YB-252);青海省防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金(QFZ-2021-Z03)。

摘　　要：利用青藏高原(简称“高原”)86个气象站观测资料、全球降水数据集CRU、GPCC、GPCP、CMAP和再分析数据集ERA5、JRA55、CFSR、MERRA2,从误差分析、空间分布、时空变化趋势、年代际特征等方面,综合分析了不同源降水数据刻画高原干湿季降水变化的适用性。结果表明:(1)GPCP和CMAP与高原观测年降水量的相对误差在2%以内,接近实况;(2)8套降水资料均能刻画出青藏高原干湿季分明的典型特征,其中再分析资料对高原湿季降水一致高估,全球观测资料普遍高估干季降水;(3)湿季降水:GPCP和实测降水相对误差最小,空间分布特征最接近实况,8套资料湿季降水随时间均呈增加趋势,GPCC的趋势特征和实况最接近,年代际特征来看,GPCP、GPCC适用性最好;(4)干季降水:8套资料均存在一致高估,GPCC空间分布同实况最接近,GPCP次之,多数资料能刻画出高原东北部增加、西南部减少趋势,其中CRU和实测最接近,8套资料均能较好再现干季降水的年代际特征,GPCC适用性最好。Utilizing observation data from 86 meteorological stations in the Tibetan Plateau(hereinafter referred to as"the Plateau"),along with global precipitation datasets including CRU,GPCC,GPCP,CMAP,and reanalysis datasets such as ERA5,JRA55,CFSR,and MERRA2,this study analyzes the applicability of different precipitation data sources in characterizing changes in precipitation during the wet and dry seasons on the Plateau.The analysis includes error analysis,spatial distribution,spatiotemporal variation trends,and interdecadal characteristics.The results indicate that:(1)The relative error of annual precipitation from GPCP and CMAP,compared to the observed data on the Plateau,is within 2%,which makes them closest to the observations.(2)All eight sets of precipitation data can capture the typical characteristics of the distinct dry and wet seasons on the Plateau.Among them,reanalysis data consistently overestimate precipitation during the wet season,while global observation data generally overestimate precipitation during the dry season.(3)For precipitation in the wet season,the relative error between GPCP data and measured precipitation is the smallest,and its spatial distribution most closely matches the observations.All eight datasets show an increasing trend of precipitation during the wet season over time,with the trend characteristics shown in GPCC being closest to the observations.In terms of interdecadal characteristics,GPCP and GPCC display the best applicability.(4)For precipitation in the dry season,all eight sets of data show a consistent overestimation,with GPCC showing the spatial distribution most similar to the observations,followed by GPCP.Most datasets depict the increasing trend in the northeastern part of the Plateau and the decreasing trend in the southwestern part,with CRU being closest to the observed data.All eight sets of data adequately reproduce the interdecadal characteristics of precipitation during the dry season,with GPCC showing the best applicability.

关 键 词：高分辨率降水数据 青藏高原 适用性评估 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]