2020年北上台风对东北地区农业影响特征及产量损失估算  

Characteristics of impacts of northward typhoons on agriculture in Northeast China in 2020 and estimation of total grain yield loss

作　　者：赵秀兰 王纯枝 程路 钱永兰 ZHAO Xiulan;WANG Chunzhi;CHENG Lu;QIAN Yonglan(National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2025年第1期69-78,共10页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：国家气象中心2024年气象高质量发展专项(QXGZL202410)。

摘　　要：2020年初秋东北地区连续遭受3个台风影响,为1949年以来历史首次。基于气象观测资料和产量资料,系统分析台风集中影响期间东北地区农业气象条件特征,估算台风致灾造成的东北三省粮食单产和总产损失。结果表明,2020年初秋台风“巴威”“美莎克”“海神”集中影响期间,频繁强降雨造成东北地区平均降水量较常年同期偏多3.3倍,吉林、黑龙江两省降水量均为近60年历史同期最多;吉林、黑龙江土壤湿涝状况为2013—2020年同期最重,部分农田出现大范围渍涝灾害。吉林和黑龙江均遭受近40年来同期最强风的影响,造成大范围作物倒伏。吉林中东部、黑龙江南部遭受较重产量损失。其中,台风“美莎克”影响最重,其次为“海神”,“巴威”影响最轻。分省来看,吉林受灾最重,黑龙江次之,辽宁最轻。分作物来看,玉米受灾最重,水稻次之,大豆最轻。2020年作物生长季期间,初秋3个北上台风对吉林和黑龙江的影响均是造成两省秋粮单产较正常年景偏差的主要因素。估算得出2020年台风造成东北三省秋粮总产较正常年景至少损失约115[KG-0.8mm]万[KG-0.05mm]t,约占秋粮总产的1.0%;其中,吉林受灾最重,至少损失秋粮约95[KG-0.8mm]万[KG-0.05mm]t,约占吉林秋粮总产的2.5%;黑龙江秋粮总产至少损失0.2%。In the early autumn of 2020,it is the first time that Northeast China has been successively affected by three typhoons since 1949.Based on the meteorological observing data and yield data,the characteristics of the agrometeorological conditions in Northeast China during typhoons’intensive impact period are analyzed,and the grain yield loss per unit area and total yield loss caused by the typhoons in the three provinces of Northeast China are estimated.The results show that during the intensive impact period of typhoons Bavi,Maysak and Haishen in the early autumn of 2020,frequent heavy rainfall causes the average precipitation in Northeast China to be 3.3 times higher than that in normal years,and the precipitation in Jilin and Heilongjiang tops the records of the same period in the past 60 years.The soil moisture and waterlogging in Jilin and Heilongjiang are the heaviest compared with the same period of 2013-2020,and large-scale waterlogging disasters occur in some farmlands.Jilin and Heilongjiang are affected by the strongest wind compared with the same period in the past 40 years,causing large-scale crop lodging.The central-eastern Jilin and southern Heilongjiang suffer serious yield loss.Among the three typhoons,Typhoon Maysak triggers the most serious impact,followed by Haishen and Bavi;from the perspective of spatial distribution,the three typhoons cause the heaviest agricultural disasters in Jilin,followed by Heilongjiang and Liaoning;from the perspective of crops,maize is the most severely affected,followed by rice and soybean.In the crop growth period in 2020,the impacts of the three northward typhoons in early autumn in Jilin and Heilongjiang are the factor that leads to less autumn grain yield per unit area than in normal years.Preliminary estimation shows that the typhoons result in at least 1.15 million tons of total yield loss of autumn grain in the three provinces of Northeast China in 2020,accounting for about 1.0%of the total autumn yield;Jilin suffers the most serious total yield loss,at least

关 键 词：北上台风 东北地区 农业影响 气象条件 单产 产量损失 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S166[农业科学—农业气象学]